MLB DFS Analysis Wednesday, May 29th

My favorite MLB DFS plays for today with statistical reasoning.

We have a 7 game slate today beginning at 7:20 E.T. Weather is great today and won't be a factor. Pitching is also not very good today, with only six pitchers being better than league average. In this article I will covers the best Pitchers, Batters, and Stacks for both Draftkings and Fanduel. Some of the players we be repeated across both platforms, so I recommend simply reading the platform you are going to be playing on.

Draftkings

Pitchers

Shota Imanaga - 10.6k (CHC @ MIL)

Shota is the best pitcher on the slate by a pretty wide margin, his 3.01 SIERA is the lowest followed by McKenzie Gore at 3.33. Shota also has the second highest K rate after Luis Gil, but Gil gets a slightly harder matchup against the pesky Angels offense. Shota faces Miluakee who has a .661 OPS against lefties, ranking 21st, and a 24.2% K rate, ranking 7th. The game total is very low at 7.5, and Shota is projected for 6.5 strikeouts according to sportsbooks.

Alek Manoah - 8.3k (TOR @ CWS)

Manoah his finally put together some good starts in the major leagues since his incredible fall from grace. This season in four starts he has a 3.97 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, while giving up 5 home runs, but his HR/FB ratio suggests some regression. Manoah has a 23.7% K rate, and the White Sox have a 23.1% K rate to righties. The strikeout upside is there and the White Sox offense is the worst in the league vs righties. Their .611 OPS is the worst by a wide margin, and they are also lowest in ISO and wRC+. Toronto is a major favorite today, and the Sox have the fourth lowest team total today at 3.7. Also, if you are betting on Prizepicks, Manoah strikeout prop is only at 5.0, which seems too low for how good this matchup is.

Bryse Wilson - 6.0k (MIL vs CHC)

Wilson started the season as a long reliever and has found his way into the starting rotation. He has a very good ERA of 2.86 and WHIP of 1.16. But even going back to last season, Wilson continues to have a much better ERA than FIP. Regression has been expected for almost two seasons now, but it's not happening. Maybe it comes today, but I doubt it, the Cubs offense is 23rd in the league vs righties, and they strike out at the 6th highest rate. Wilson also has. 21.2% K rate which is very good for only 6k. I wouldn't combine Wilson and Shota because only one of them can get the win, but Wilson is a great play at this price.

Batters

Kevin Kiermaier vs Chris Flexen (TOR @ CWS) - 2.8k

Kiermaier has not been a good hitter this year, he has a .216 average with no power, he only has one home run and a .606 OPS. But just like a lot of the Blue Jays lineup, he is hitting much better recently. Over the last month Kiermaier is batting .250 with a .793 OPS, and vs righties this month his ISO is .250. Kiermaier is 2 for 4 vs Flexen in his career with a double and triple. I talk more about why I love the Blue Jays today below, but 2.1k for a player who has been swinging the bat well lately on a team with one of the implied run totals on the slate, count me in.

Keibert Ruiz vs Spencer Schwellenbach (WSH vs ATL) - 2.4k

Ruiz is on a hot streak right now, in his last five games he has 8 hits, 4 runs, and 3 RBIs. In his last 10 games he is batting .385 with a 1.008 OPS vs righties. Today he faces Spencer Schwellenbach who has been great in single and double a, but is skipping triple a to come to the majors. Theres a chance it is a rude awakening for Schwellenbach, and Ruiz is sitting 5th in the order and should do very well if the Nationals get to the rookie.

Stacks

Blue Jays vs Chris Flexen

The Blue Jays are red hot right now, they have a .729 OPS vs right handed pitching this month, which ranks them 7th in the league. Danny Jansen and Davis Schneider have emerged as great hitters, and Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are finally hitting how they should be. Vlad is hitting .382 on the month with a .972 OPS, and it's even better vs righties. Flexen has the worst xFIP on the slate and he is always worth betting against. The Blue Jays have hit him so well in the past also, in fact 6 of the 9 starters have a home run against Flexen in their career.

Kansas City Royals vs Bailey Ober

Ober is coming in with super high ownership on Fanduel, estimated for around 33%, but I don't understand the appeal. He has a 99 xFIP-, essentially league average, and he is a fly ball pitcher, 53% of his batted balls are fly balls, which is usually not a trait of great pitchers. The Royals are also a very good team, they are 11th in OPS vs righties, and their k rate is second to last. The Royals have also hit Ober very well in the past, they have a .348 average and .955 OPS vs him. And when Ober faced the Royals on his first start of the season, he allowed 8 runs in 1.1 innings.

Fanduel

Pitchers

Shota Imanaga - 10.8k (CHC @ MIL)

Shota is the best pitcher on the slate by a pretty wide margin, his 3.01 SIERA is the lowest followed by McKenzie Gore at 3.33. Shota also has the second highest K rate after Luis Gil, but Gil gets a slightly harder matchup against the pesky Angels offense. Shota faces Miluakee who has a .661 OPS against lefties, ranking 21st, and a 24.2% K rate, ranking 7th. The game total is very low at 7.5, and Shota is projected for 6.5 strikeouts according to sportsbooks.

Alek Manoah - 9.2k (TOR @ CWS)

Manoah his finally put together some good starts in the major leagues since his incredible fall from grace. This season in four starts he has a 3.97 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, while giving up 5 home runs, but his HR/FB ratio suggests some regression. Manoah has a 23.7% K rate, and the White Sox have a 23.1% K rate to righties. The strikeout upside is there and the White Sox offense is the worst in the league vs righties. Their .611 OPS is the worst by a wide margin, and they are also lowest in ISO and wRC+. Toronto is a major favorite today, and the Sox have the fourth lowest team total today at 3.7. Also, if you are betting on Prizepicks, Manoah strikeout prop is only at 5.0, which seems too low for how good this matchup is.

Bryse Wilson - 7.5k (MIL vs CHC)

Wilson started the season as a long reliever and has found his way into the starting rotation. He has a very good ERA of 2.86 and WHIP of 1.16. But even going back to last season, Wilson continues to have a much better ERA than FIP. Regression has been expected for almost two seasons now, but it's not happening. Maybe it comes today, but I doubt it, the Cubs offense is 23rd in the league vs righties, and they strike out at the 6th highest rate. Wilson also has. 21.2% K rate which is very good for only 7.5k. I wouldn't combine Wilson and Shota because only one of them can get the win, but Wilson is a great play at this price.

Batters

Keibert Ruiz vs Spencer Schwellenbach (WSH vs ATL) - 2.4k

Ruiz is on a hot streak right now, in his last five games he has 8 hits, 4 runs, and 3 RBIs. In his last 10 games he is batting .385 with a 1.008 OPS vs righties. Today he faces Spencer Schwellenbach who has been great in single and double a, but is skipping triple a to come to the majors. Theres a chance it is a rude awakening for Schwellenbach, and Ruiz is sitting 5th in the order and should do very well if the Nationals get to the rookie.

Kevin Kiermaier vs Chris Flexen (TOR @ CWS) - 2.1k

Kiermaier has not been a good hitter this year, he has a .216 average with no power, he only has one home run and a .606 OPS. But just like a lot of the Blue Jays lineup, he is hitting much better recently. Over the last month Kiermaier is batting .250 with a .793 OPS, and vs righties this month his ISO is .250. Kiermaier is 2 for 4 vs Flexen in his career with a double and triple. I talk more about why I love the Blue Jays today below, but 2.1k for a player who has been swinging the bat well lately on a team with one of the implied run totals on the slate, count me in.

Stacks

Blue Jays vs Chris Flexen

The Blue Jays are red hot right now, they have a .729 OPS vs right handed pitching this month, which ranks them 7th in the league. Danny Jansen and Davis Schneider have emerged as great hitters, and Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are finally hitting how they should be. Vlad is hitting .382 on the month with a .972 OPS, and it's even better vs righties. Flexen has the worst xFIP on the slate and he is always worth betting against. The Blue Jays have hit him so well in the past also, in fact 6 of the 9 starters have a home run against Flexen in their career.

Kansas City Royals vs Bailey Ober

Ober is coming in with super high ownership on Fanduel, estimated for around 33%, but I don't understand the appeal. He has a 99 xFIP-, essentially league average, and he is a fly ball pitcher, 53% of his batted balls are fly balls, which is usually not a trait of great pitchers. The Royals are also a very good team, they are 11th in OPS vs righties, and their k rate is second to last. The Royals have also hit Ober very well in the past, they have a .348 average and .955 OPS vs him. And when Ober faced the Royals on his first start of the season, he allowed 8 runs in 1.1 innings.