MLB DFS Analysis Wednesday, June 5th

My favorite MLB DFS plays for today with statistical reasoning.

We have an eight game slate today starting at 6:40 E.T. Keep an eye on the Royals vs Guardians game, there is currently 90% chance of strong rain and a good chance of postponement. In this article I will cover the best Pitchers, Batters, and Stacks for both Draftkings and Fanduel. Some of the players we be repeated across both platforms, so I recommend simply reading the platform you are going to be playing on.

Draftkings

Pitchers

Dylan Cease - 9.8k (SDP @ LAA)

Cease started off the season red hot and now finds himself in a rough stretch. He has given up three or more runs in his last four starts, and only passed 20 fantasy points once in that span. However, despite this rough stretch, he is still top three in every pitching stat on the slate, including second in K rate at 30.9%. The Angels are the 4th worst team vs righties, and strike out 23.6% of the time. Cease is in a good spot to get back on track today against a terrible offense.

Logan Gilbert - 9.2k (SEA @ OAK)

Sticking with high end pitching, Gilbert is in a great spot today. Oakland strikes out at a 26.5% rate vs righties, third highest in the league. Gilbert has faced Oakland 9 times in his career and only allowed more than three runs once, and in the last three matchups Gilbert got a quality start each time. Current A's in the lineup today are only 2 for 36 vs Gilbert, a .055 average. Gilbert is worth paying up for today.

Batters

Luis Robert vs James Taillon (HOU vs STL) - 5k

Robert is back at it, in his first game back from injury yesterday he had two hits including a home run. Today he faces James Taillon who is one of the worst pitchers on the slate according to SIERA and xFIP. Robert clearly shows up for the cross town classic, in 14 career games vs the Cubs, Robert is batting .389 with a 1.255 OPS and 6 home runs. I absolutely love this spot for Robert, and he is also my play of the day on Prizepicks, where he somehow has a 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI line.

Ke'Bryant Hayes vs James Paxton (PIT vs LAD) - 4.1k

Hayes is a great hitter vs lefties, he has a .310 average and .928 OPS. I go more in depth on the Pirates and James Paxton in the stacks section, but Paxton is due for some serious regression, and the Pirates are secretly a very good offense vs left handed pitchers. Paxton is also almost 200 OPS points worse vs right handed batters, with a .563 OPS to lefties and a .752 OPS to righties. With Hayes being a righty he is in a great spot today.

Stacks

Texas Rangers vs Kenta Maeda

Maeda has not had the start to the season he'd hoped, his 6.25 ERA and 1.41 WHIP are the highest of his career, and after James Paxton, he has the worst SIERA on the slate. The Rangers offense has not been great recently, with only a .690 OPS vs righties since May 1st. However, the last time the Rangers faced Maeda, they scored 6 runs and 3 home runs in 2.2 innings. Through a large sample size of 80 at bats, Maeda allows a .300 average and .958 OPS to right handed hitters, this boosts Marcsus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Wyatt Langford, Leody Tavares, and Jonas Heim to good plays. On top of that Corey Seager, Josh Smith, and Nathaniel Lowe have been hitting great vs righties this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs James Paxton

As a low owned cheaper stack, I like the Pirates a lot today. Their lineup has been injured for a while but it looks to be fully healthy now. They are currently the 11th best team vs left handed pitching, but that was higher at the start of the season when everyone was in the lineup. Paxton has the highest SIERA, FIP, and xFIP on the slate as well as his left on base percentage. If he gets a little less lucks and the Pirates do well with runners in scoring position, he could have a rough night. 8 of the 9 batters in the Pirates lineup today are above average hitters vs lefties, and Ke'Bryant Hayes, Henry Davis, Connor Joe, Andrew McCutchen, and Bryan Reynolds all have a wRC+ over 130.

Fanduel

Pitchers

Dylan Cease - 10.3k (SDP @ LAA)

Cease started off the season red hot and now finds himself in a rough stretch. He has given up three or more runs in his last four starts, and only passed 20 fantasy points once in that span. However, despite this rough stretch, he is still top three in every pitching stat on the slate, including second in K rate at 30.9%. The Angels are the 4th worst team vs righties, and strike out 23.6% of the time. Cease is in a good spot to get back on track today against a terrible offense.

Logan Gilbert - 10.2k (SEA @ OAK)

Sticking with high end pitching, Gilbert is in a great spot today. Oakland strikes out at a 26.5% rate vs righties, third highest in the league. Gilbert has faced Oakland 9 times in his career and only allowed more than three runs once, and in the last three matchups Gilbert got a quality start each time. Current A's in the lineup today are only 2 for 36 vs Gilbert, a .055 average. Gilbert is worth paying up for today.

Joey Estes - 6.8k (OAK vs SEA)

The young pitcher has a 6.1 ERA on his first four starts of the season, but a majority of the runs came when he got shelled by the Astros, in his other three starts he has had 27, 27, and 33 fantasy points. Most of the advanced stats don't look great for Estes accept that he has done a great job of limiting hard contact. The reason he is here is because he strikes out 23% of the batters he faces, and Seattle strikes out at the highest rate in the league vs righties—28.2%. Estes should get five Ks today easy with the potential for more, and if he can limit the hits he is in a great spot to be one of the best values on the slate.

Batters

Luis Robert vs James Taillon (HOU vs STL) - 3k

Robert is back at it, in his first game back from injury yesterday he had two hits including a home run. He is only 3k on Fanduel and that will never be this low again. Today he faces James Taillon who is one of the worst pitchers on the slate according to SIERA and xFIP. Robert clearly shows up for the cross town classic, in 14 career games vs the Cubs, Robert is batting .389 with a 1.255 OPS and 6 home runs. I absolutely love this spot for Robert, and he is also my play of the day on Prizepicks, where he somehow has a 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI line.

Ke'Bryant Hayes vs James Paxton (PIT vs LAD) - 2.5k

Hayes is a great hitter vs lefties, he has a .310 average and .928 OPS. I go more in depth on the Pirates and James Paxton in the stacks section, but Paxton is due for some serious regression, and the Pirates are secretly a very good offense vs left handed pitchers. Paxton is also almost 200 OPS points worse vs right handed batters, with a .563 OPS to lefties and a .752 OPS to righties. With Hayes being a righty he is in a great spot today and is far too cheap on Fanduel.

Stacks

Texas Rangers vs Kenta Maeda

Maeda has not had the start to the season he'd hoped, his 6.25 ERA and 1.41 WHIP are the highest of his career, and after James Paxton, he has the worst SIERA on the slate. The Rangers offense has not been great recently, with only a .690 OPS vs righties since May 1st. However, the last time the Rangers faced Maeda, they scored 6 runs and 3 home runs in 2.2 innings. Through a large sample size of 80 at bats, Maeda allows a .300 average and .958 OPS to right handed hitters, this boosts Marcsus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Wyatt Langford, Leody Tavares, and Jonas Heim to good plays. On top of that Corey Seager, Josh Smith, and Nathaniel Lowe have been hitting great vs righties this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs James Paxton

As a low owned cheaper stack, I like the Pirates a lot today. Their lineup has been injured for a while but it looks to be fully healthy now. They are currently the 11th best team vs left handed pitching, but that was higher at the start of the season when everyone was in the lineup. Paxton has the highest SIERA, FIP, and xFIP on the slate as well as his left on base percentage. If he gets a little less lucks and the Pirates do well with runners in scoring position, he could have a rough night. 8 of the 9 batters in the Pirates lineup today are above average hitters vs lefties, and Ke'Bryant Hayes, Henry Davis, Connor Joe, Andrew McCutchen, and Bryan Reynolds all have a wRC+ over 130.