MLB DFS Analysis Wednesday, June 26th

My favorite MLB DFS plays for today with statistical reasoning.

Following the big 12 game slate yesterday, we have our first split slate today. Five games on Fanduel starting at 7:10 ET, and six games on Draftkings at the same time. Fanduel opted not to include the makeup doubleheader between the Braves and Cardinals whereas Draftkings did. There is possibility of an in game delay in the Mets vs Yankees game during the mid to late innings, there is a chance this ends a starting pitchers night early but they should still be able to get 6 innings. In this article I will cover the best Pitchers, Batters, and Stacks for both Draftkings and Fanduel. Some of the players we be repeated across both platforms, so I recommend simply reading the platform you are going to be playing on.

Draftkings

Pitchers

Sean Manea - 7.2k (NYM vs NYY)

The Yankees aren't actually that good vs left handed pitchers, they rank 16th in OPS and have a wRC+ of 105, just 5% better than average. Sean Manea has a K rate of just over 24%, and he is projected for five strikeouts today. On a slate with so few pitchers, we may not see a true ceiling game today, and I think Manea has a great chance to simply pay off his salary on Draftkings.

Yariel Rodriguez - 5k (TOR @ BOS)

Rodriguez is facing a scary lineup today, Boston ranks 8th in OPS vs righties, and over June their OPS vs righties is sitting at .814. What I noticed however, is that Yariel Rodriguez has some pretty drastic splits, lefties have just a .698 OPS, while righties have a 1.035 OPS against him. Everybody in the Boston lineup is a lefty accept Tyler O'neill, who isn't even very good vs right handed pitchers. I am only going to be playing a little bit of Yariel Rodriguez, and I'll still be playing a good amount of Boston, but I thought it's worth pointing out that the splits are in Rodriguez's favor, and there is a chance at 15 fantasy points, which would be great at this price.

Batters

Aaron Judge vs Sean Manea (NYY vs NYM) - 6.4k

While I do have Manea as one of my favorite values at pitcher, I can't ignore how good this spot looks for Aaron Judge. In 12 at bats vs Manea, Judge has 5 hits including two home runs for an OPS of 1.417. Judge also plays better in the Subway series with a career OPS of 1.146 vs the Mets. Judge will get some very high ownership on this slate but it is worth going chalky for him.

Teoscar Hernandez vs Eric Fedde (LAD vs CWS) - 5.4k

Teoscar is still day to day, so he may not end up playing, but if he does he has some great history vs Eric Fedde. In just five at bats vs Fedde, Teoscar has two home runs, a single, and a walk. This is also the cheapest I have seen Teoscar in a while, the Dodgers are projected for 5 runs, second highest on the slate, and Teoscar has been a big part of the offense.

Jose Miranda vs Ryne Neslon (MIN @ ARI) - 3.6k

Jose Miranda is on fire recently, over the last two weeks he is batting .351 with a 1.050 OPS. He has been even better vs righties with a .395 average and 1.188 OPS vs righties in June. Sadly, he will likely be batting near the end of the order, but even then, he has been hitting so well he can get it done from anywhere in the lineup.

Stacks

Boston Red Sox vs Yariel Rodriguez

Rodriguez has been good vs lefties this season, and the Sox lineup contains 8 lefties, however, Boston still has the highest run total on the slate and Yariel Rodriguez will throw a max of 80 or so pitches. The Blue Jays bullpen ranks 22nd so it can be gotten to by this powerful Red Sox lineup as well.

Minnesota Twins vs Ryne Nelson

Nelson has a terrible 4.67 SIERA and .298 opponent average. The Twins are projected for 4.7 runs, tied for 3rd on the slate, and I honestly think it should be higher. Since Royce Lewis joined the Twins lineup, they are batting .271 with a .797 OPS. The Twins lineup is also 5 for 7 in a small sample size vs Ryne Nelson. Max Kepler, Ryan Jeffers, and Trevor Larnach, have all been bad in June, but the rest of the lineup is red hot, and today could be the day for them to get out of their cold streak.

Fanduel

Pitchers

Sean Manea - 7.7k (NYM vs NYY)

The Yankees aren't actually that good vs left handed pitchers, they rank 16th in OPS and have a wRC+ of 105, just 5% better than average. Sean Manea has a K rate of just over 24%, and he is projected for five strikeouts today. On a slate with so few pitchers, we may not see a true ceiling game today, and I think Manea has a great chance to simply pay off his salary on Draftkings.

Hayden Birdsong - 5.5k (SFG vs CHC)

The Giants called up Hayden Birdsong from triple a, just a couple weeks after he was called up from double a. He dominated double a with a 2.05 ERA, but in triple a he allowed 5 runs in 9 innings. Despite this, the Cubs have a run total of 3.7, tied for the lowest on the slate with the White Sox. Vegas projects Birdsong for five strikeouts, and they don't expect Chicago to score very much, so this value is incredible.

Batters

Aaron Judge vs Sean Manea (NYY vs NYM) - 4.9k

While I do have Manea as one of my favorite values at pitcher, I can't ignore how good this spot looks for Aaron Judge. In 12 at bats vs Manea, Judge has 5 hits including two home runs for an OPS of 1.417. Judge also plays better in the Subway series with a career OPS of 1.146 vs the Mets. Judge will get some very high ownership on this slate but it is worth going chalky for him.

Teoscar Hernandez vs Eric Fedde (LAD vs CWS) - 3.6k

Teoscar is still day to day, so he may not end up playing, but if he does he has some great history vs Eric Fedde. In just five at bats vs Fedde, Teoscar has two home runs, a single, and a walk. This is also the cheapest I have seen Teoscar in a while, the Dodgers are projected for 5 runs, second highest on the slate, and Teoscar has been a big part of the offense.

Jose Miranda vs Ryne Neslon (MIN @ ARI) - 2.7k

Jose Miranda is on fire recently, over the last two weeks he is batting .351 with a 1.050 OPS. He has been even better vs righties with a .395 average and 1.188 OPS vs righties in June. Sadly, he will likely be batting near the end of the order, but even then, he has been hitting so well he can get it done from anywhere in the lineup.

Stacks

Boston Red Sox vs Yariel Rodriguez

Rodriguez has been good vs lefties this season, and the Sox lineup contains 8 lefties, however, Boston still has the highest run total on the slate and Yariel Rodriguez will throw a max of 80 or so pitches. The Blue Jays bullpen ranks 22nd so it can be gotten to by this powerful Red Sox lineup as well.

Minnesota Twins vs Ryne Nelson

Nelson has a terrible 4.67 SIERA and .298 opponent average. The Twins are projected for 4.7 runs, tied for 3rd on the slate, and I honestly think it should be higher. Since Royce Lewis joined the Twins lineup, they are batting .271 with a .797 OPS. The Twins lineup is also 5 for 7 in a small sample size vs Ryne Nelson. Max Kepler, Ryan Jeffers, and Trevor Larnach, have all been bad in June, but the rest of the lineup is red hot, and today could be the day for them to get out of their cold streak.