MLB DFS Analysis Wednesday, June 19th

My favorite MLB DFS plays for today with statistical reasoning.

We have an eight game slate today kicking off at 7:05 E.T. Weather looks great today so no postponements to worry about. There is some good top end pitching today but the slate lacks good low end pitchers. In this article I will cover the best Pitchers, Batters, and Stacks for both Draftkings and Fanduel. Some of the players we be repeated across both platforms, so I recommend simply reading the platform you are going to be playing on.

Draftkings

Pitchers

Cole Ragans - 9.8k (KCR @ OAK)

Ragans is the best pitcher on the slate and he has the best matchup as well. He has a K rate of 29.1%, an xFIP- of 77, and a SIERA of 3.21. Ragans faces the A's who have the 5th highest K rate vs righties at 24.8%, and rank 20th in OPS vs lefties. The royals are -177 to win and Ragans' strikeout line is set to 7.5, with money on the over.

Freddy Peralta - 9.6k (MIL @ LAA)

Peralta has been elite this season, he has an xFIP- of 86 and a SIERA of 3.18. He has also been striking out 30.7% of batters, and he gets a good matchup today vs the Angels. The Angels are 20th in OPS vs righties, and they have a K rate of 23%. The Brewers are -160 favorites and Peralta's strikeout line is set at 6.5, third on the slate behind Cole Ragans and Joe Ryan.

Taj Bradley - 8k (TBR @ MIN)

Bradley continues to be one of the more underrated pitchers in the league, and it doesn't help his case that his ERA is higher than his advanced stats would suggest. He currently has a 4.32 ERA and 1.1 WHIP, solid numbers, but his xFIP- is 77, the same as Cole Ragans, and his SIERA is 3.01, the best on the slate. These numbers are all so good because of his K rate, Bradley has a 31.6% K rate, and allows only a .207 opponent average. Minnesota is a tough matchup, they rank 10th in OPS vs righties and strikeout at an average rate. Regardless, Bradley has hit double digit strikeouts twice this season, and his upside is so good for 8k. Additionally, if you use PrizePicks, his over 6.0 strikeouts looks very good (he has hit that in 6 of 7 games this season).

Batters

Jason Heyward vs Ryan Feltner (LAD @ COL) - 3.8k

Heyward has been great of late for the Dodgers, in June he is batting .297 with a 1.029 OPS. In the first game vs the Rockies he started and scored 15 fantasy points, then, in the second game, they benched him against lefty Austin Gomber, but he pinch hit a grand slam in the 9th inning. Today he will start again vs the righty Ryan Feltner, and he'll look to be a big part of the offense for a third straight game.

Gary Sanchez vs Tyler Anderson (MIL @ LAA) - 3.7k

Sanchez has been solid with Miluwakee, he has 7 home runs and a .705 OPS. The reason I like him today is because one, Tyler Anderson sucks, and two, Sanchez is great vs lefties. Vs lefties this season Sanchez has a .794 OPS, 44% hard contact rate, and a .283 ISO. He is only +300 to hit a home run on Draftings, which equals a 25% chance. Those odds are incredible at this price, and I want a lot of Sanchez in my lineups today.

Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Ryan Feltner

Once again we have the Dodgers at Coors field. The Dodgers have scored 9 and 11 runs in the two games at Coors this series, and once again their run total is the highest on the slate at 6.3. Feltner is the best Rockies pitcher so far, he surprisingly has a 3.33 xFIP at home this season, but his ERA at home is still 6.89 and he is allowing a .333 opponent average at home. They are of course extremely expensive but you can make it work with two value pitchers such as Hunter Brown, Sean Manea, or Andrew Heaney.

Milwuakee Brewers vs Tyler Anderson

I was on the Brewers yesterday and they put up a respectable six runs, but Yelich was the only guy from the top of the order to be fantasy viable. Hopefully that chances today as they have the highest implied run total after the Dodgers. Tyler Anderson has the biggest discrepancy between ERA and FIP that I have seen, his ERA is an elite 2.58 and his FIP is a bad 4.69. All his advanced stats rank near the bottom of the league, and his K rate is 16% while his walk rate is 10%. He has the highest left on base percentage on the slate at 87%, so some serious regression is due.

Kansas City Royals vs Luis Medina

The Royals were disappointing yesterday when they lost the the A's and triple a pitcher Hogan Harris. But today they have a chance to run it back against another bad pitcher. Going back from last season to now, Medina has a SIERA of 4.9, a xFIP- of 115, and a walk rate of 11.5%. Bobby Witt Jr will look to bounce back from his 0 for 5 night yesterday, and some power should come from Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino.

Fanduel

Pitchers

Cole Ragans - 10.6k (KCR @ OAK)

Ragans is the best pitcher on the slate and he has the best matchup as well. He has a K rate of 29.1%, an xFIP- of 77, and a SIERA of 3.21. Ragans faces the A's who have the 5th highest K rate vs righties at 24.8%, and rank 20th in OPS vs lefties. The royals are -177 to win and Ragans' strikeout line is set to 7.5, with money on the over.

Freddy Peralta - 9.5k (MIL @ LAA)

Peralta has been elite this season, he has an xFIP- of 86 and a SIERA of 3.18. He has also been striking out 30.7% of batters, and he gets a good matchup today vs the Angels. The Angels are 20th in OPS vs righties, and they have a K rate of 23%. The Brewers are -160 favorites and Peralta's strikeout line is set at 6.5, third on the slate behind Cole Ragans and Joe Ryan.

Batters

Shohei Ohtani vs Ryan Feltner (LAD @ COL) - 5.2k

It is crazy to see a batter at almost nearly in the pitching price range, but Ohtani has shown to be worth it. In his two games in Coors field this series, he has 34 and 28 fantasy points. Ohtani has a wRC+ of 209 vs righties, meaning his value is double the league average hitter. His OPS vs righties is 1.115, and his ISO is .372. According to draftkings Ohtani has a 38.5% chance at a home run today; if you can afford Ohtani, he is a must play.

Vinnie Pasquantino vs Luis Medina (KCR @ OAK) - 2.8k

You can read more on the matchup in the stacks section, but to summarize, Medina is possibly the worst pitcher on the slate and Pasquantino is batting 3rd on a good offense. Pasquantino is great vs righties, 6 of his 7 home runs this season are vs righties, and his K rate is only 13.5%, while his walk rate is 12.6%. He has power and discipline and he is at the top on the lineup on a team that should score a lot today.

Spencer Horwitz vs Bryan Bello (TOR vs BOS) - 2.5k

Horwitz was called up from triple a to be in the lineup vs right handed pitching. In his 30 at bats since bieng called up he has 10 hits, 3 runs, 3 RBIs, and 5 walks. He has been getting on base very well and has thus been used as the lead off hitter. While Bryan Bello is a solid pitcher, the Blue Jays are still projected for 4.3 runs, and Horwitz may see 5 plate appearances.

Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Ryan Feltner

Once again we have the Dodgers at Coors field. The Dodgers have scored 9 and 11 runs in the two games at Coors this series, and once again their run total is the highest on the slate at 6.3. Feltner is the best Rockies pitcher so far, he surprisingly has a 3.33 xFIP at home this season, but his ERA at home is still 6.89 and he is allowing a .333 opponent average at home. They are of course extremely expensive but you can make it work with a value pitchers such as Hunter Brown.

Milwuakee Brewers vs Tyler Anderson

I was on the Brewers yesterday and they put up a respectable six runs, but Yelich was the only guy from the top of the order to be fantasy viable. Hopefully that chances today as they have the highest implied run total after the Dodgers. Tyler Anderson has the biggest discrepancy between ERA and FIP that I have seen, his ERA is an elite 2.58 and his FIP is a bad 4.69. All his advanced stats rank near the bottom of the league, and his K rate is 16% while his walk rate is 10%. He has the highest left on base percentage on the slate at 87%, so some serious regression is due.

Kansas City Royals vs Luis Medina

The Royals were disappointing yesterday when they lost the the A's and triple a pitcher Hogan Harris. But today they have a chance to run it back against another bad pitcher. Going back from last season to now, Medina has a SIERA of 4.9, a xFIP- of 115, and a walk rate of 11.5%. Bobby Witt Jr will look to bounce back from his 0 for 5 night yesterday, and some power should come from Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino.