MLB DFS Analysis Tuesday, June 4th

My favorite MLB DFS plays for today with statistical reasoning.

We have a ten game slate underway today at 7:05 E.T. Weather looks good with the exception of the cross town classic in Chicago. There is going to be heavy rain before and after the game, so if the game goes long or the game is delays a bit, the final couple innings could be postponed. In this article I will cover the best Pitchers, Batters, and Stacks for both Draftkings and Fanduel. Some of the players we be repeated across both platforms, so I recommend simply reading the platform you are going to be playing on.

Draftkings

Pitchers

Max Fried - 9k (ATL @ BOS)

Boston has the highest strikeout rate in the league vs left handed pitching at a whopping 28.4%. Along with that they are 17th in the league in OPS vs lefties and the game total is only at 8 with Atlanta favored. Fried pitches much better on the road for some reason, in his seven starts on the road this season he has a 2.63 ERA, .82 WHIP, and a .144 opponent average. These are some crazy good numbers. His K rate is still fairly average at around 22% on the road, but Boston is so terrible against lefties that Fried still has great K upside today.

Spencer Arrighetti - 6.7k (HOU vs STL)

Arrighetti is a nice risky low cost play if you want to use another top end pitcher. He has a 25.5% K rate, and the Cardinals have a 24.4% K rate vs righties. Arrighetti is projected for 5.5 strikeouts and at this price that is a steal. The reason for this price is his 5.98 ERA, and he only has one game all season with over 20 fantasy points. But his FIP is much lower than his ERA, in fact it is league average, so if we see some positive regression this is an average pitcher with an above average strikeout rate for only 6.7k.

Batters

Yordan Alvarez vs Andre Pallante (HOU vs STL) - 5.1k

Alvarez has a lot of power vs righties, he has a .240 ISO and he has hit three home runs in the last three games. He also has at least one hit in 15 of the last 16 games. Pallante is not a good pitcher, he has a 14% K rate and 11% walk rate and the 4th worst SIERA on the slate with a 4.52. He is a ground ball pitcher so he will try and limit the home runs, but with a high walk rate and .308 BABIP, the Houston offense could get something going.

Stuart Fairchild vs Ty Blach (CIN @ COL) - 3.5k

Fairchild is leading off today against the lefty Ty Blach. Fairchild essentially only gets at bats vs lefties, so I am always worried with him that he will only get 2-3 at bats before being pinch hit. Regardless, he is hitting .317 vs lefties with a .903 OPS, and the game is in Coors field with the highest run total on the day. He also steals bases so there is a chance for some extra fantasy points.

Dansby Swanson vs Chris Flexen (SDP @ LAA) - 3.5k

Swanson has been a big disapointment this season with an abysmal .203 batting average an .609 OPS. His price is now down to 2.7k though and he has a history of crushing Chris Flexen. In 11 at bats against him, he has 7 hits including 2 doubles and 1 home run. This puts his OPS against Flexen at 1.636. Hopefully Swanson can keep those numbers up today despite his bad start to this season.

Donovan Solano vs Patrick Sandoval (SDP @ LAA) - 2.9k

It didn't work yesterday but Solano is facing a lefty agian so we are going right back to it. Solano batting .382 vs lefties with a .962 OPS. Solano is 2 for 6 with a double and a single against Patrick Sandoval in his career. If Solano can keep hitting like he has he wont be at this price much longer.

Stacks

Houston Astros vs Andre Pallante

Pallante is not a good pitcher, he has a 14% K rate and 11% walk rate and the 4th worst SIERA on the slate with a 4.52. He is a ground ball pitcher so he will try and limit the home runs, but with a high walk rate and .308 BABIP, the Houston offense could get something going. Tucker, Alvarez, Altuve, and Jake Meyers have been especially good this season vs righties, so I would target those four in a stack, an Meyers has great value for a one off as well.

San Fransisco Giants vs Blake Walston

Blake Walston is a rookie for the Diamondbacks who has started two games so far this season. He allowed two runs to the Dodgers in 3.2 innings, and shutout the Marlins in 4.2 innings. So far so good for the rookies, but the advanced stats don't look so great. He has an xFIP- of 122, a 46% hard hit rate, and only 61% of his pitches have been strikes. The Giants offense has been better vs lefties, ranking 11th in the league. Some players to watch are Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, and Casey Schmitt for value.

Fanduel

Pitchers

Max Fried - 9.9k (ATL @ BOS)

Boston has the highest strikeout rate in the league vs left handed pitching at a whopping 28.4%. Along with that they are 17th in the league in OPS vs lefties and the game total is only at 8 with Atlanta favored. Fried pitches much better on the road for some reason, in his seven starts on the road this season he has a 2.63 ERA, .82 WHIP, and a .144 opponent average. These are some crazy good numbers. His K rate is still fairly average at around 22% on the road, but Boston is so terrible against lefties that Fried still has great K upside today.

Adam Mazur - 5.5k (SDP @ LAA)

Mazur is the Padres third best pitching prospect and because of injuries to Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove he is entering the rotation today. We was great in double a this season with a 1.95 ERA and .87 WHIP, but when he got called up to triple a he was terrible. He had a 7.11 ERA and 1.32 WHIP through four starts and 19 innings. Mazur does not have to do much to pay off this price tag, five innings, four strikeouts, and two earned runs would make the Padres happy and make him a great value in DFS. The Angels are 5th worst in OPS vs righties so Mazur gets a great matchup for his major league debut.

Batters

Yordan Alvarez vs Andre Pallante (HOU vs STL) - 3.6k

Alvarez has a lot of power vs righties, he has a .240 ISO and he has hit three home runs in the last three games. He also has at least one hit in 15 of the last 16 games. Pallante is not a good pitcher, he has a 14% K rate and 11% walk rate and the 4th worst SIERA on the slate with a 4.52. He is a ground ball pitcher so he will try and limit the home runs, but with a high walk rate and .308 BABIP, the Houston offense could get something going.

Dansby Swanson vs Chris Flexen (SDP @ LAA) - 2.7k

Swanson has been a big disapointment this season with an abysmal .203 batting average an .609 OPS. His price is now down to 2.7k though and he has a history of crushing Chris Flexen. In 11 at bats against him, he has 7 hits including 2 doubles and 1 home run. This puts his OPS against Flexen at 1.636. Hopefully Swanson can keep those numbers up today despite his bad start to this season.

Donovan Solano vs Patrick Sandoval (SDP @ LAA) - 2.3k

It didn't work yesterday but Solano is facing a lefty agian so we are going right back to it. Solano batting .382 vs lefties with a .962 OPS. Solano is 2 for 6 with a double and a single against Patrick Sandoval in his career. If Solano can keep hitting like he has he wont be at this price much longer.

Stacks

Houston Astros vs Andre Pallante

Pallante is not a good pitcher, he has a 14% K rate and 11% walk rate and the 4th worst SIERA on the slate with a 4.52. He is a ground ball pitcher so he will try and limit the home runs, but with a high walk rate and .308 BABIP, the Houston offense could get something going. Tucker, Alvarez, Altuve, and Jake Myers have been especially good this season vs righties, so I would target those four in a stack, an Myers has great value for a one off as well.

San Fransisco Giants vs Blake Walston

Blake Walston is a rookie for the Diamondbacks who has started two games so far this season. He allowed two runs to the Dodgers in 3.2 innings, and shutout the Marlins in 4.2 innings. So far so good for the rookies, but the advanced stats don't look so great. He has an xFIP- of 122, a 46% hard hit rate, and only 61% of his pitches have been strikes. The Giants offense has been better vs lefties, ranking 11th in the league. Some players to watch are Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, and Casey Schmitt for value.