MLB DFS Analysis Tuesday, June 25th

My favorite MLB DFS plays for today with statistical reasoning.

We've got a big 12 game slate today starting at 7:10 E.T. Weather is not nearly as nice as yesterday, there is rain in five of the cities with games but as of now no postponements are expected. In this article I will cover the best Pitchers, Batters, and Stacks for both Draftkings and Fanduel. Some of the players we be repeated across both platforms, so I recommend simply reading the platform you are going to be playing on.

Draftkings

Pitchers

Hunter Greene - 8.6k (CIN vs PIT)

Rotogrinders seems pretty worried about the weather at this game so make sure to keep an eye on it, but assuming it plays, Greene is a great play at this price. Pittsburgh ranks 29th in OPS vs righties and 5th in K rate at 24.8%. Greene has a 26.6% K rate and a 3.87 SIERA, and his last start was against the Pirates where he had nine strikeouts and allowed zero earned runs through 6.1 innings. Greene's strikeout line is at 7, tied for the highest on the day, and he is only the seventh highest priced pitcher.

Bobby Miller - 8.5k (LAD @ CWS)

This game another one with some weather issues, so double check if there are any delays expected before lock. Bobby Miller has been getting shelled this season, which was not what the Dodgers expected after his great rookie season last year. The good news is his xFIP and SIERA both show lots of positive regression. His K rate has been high at 26.7%, so he has the upside, and today he faces the White Sox who rank dead last in the league in OPS vs right handed pitchers. He's been dealing with injuries but he pitched 79 pitches in his last game and today he should get into the high 80s. If you use PrizePicks I also like his over 5.0 strikeouts line.

Hunter Brown - 8k (HOU vs COL)

Hunter Brown has been on a tear recently, he had a rough start to the season but his stats showed some regression was coming, and it sure did. He has allowed just seven runs over his last six starts, and he has at least seven strikeouts in four of those games. Brown gets a great matchup today vs the Rockies who can't hit on the road. They have an OPS of .656 vs right handed pitching and a K rate of 25.94%. Hunter Brown's strikeout line is at 7 today, and at 8k he is going to be very high owned, and for good reason.

Batters

Yordan Alvarez vs Austin Gomber (HOU vs COL) - 5.5k

Alvarez has a .330 average vs lefties and a .904 OPS. Austin Gomber is not a good pitcher and the Astros are projected for the third most runs on the day. With no Kyle Tucker Alvarez will have to do a lot of the work, and he is expected to. His odds to hit a home run today are +275 on Draftkings, which is a 27% chance.

Forrest Wall vs Kyle Gibson (ATL vs STL) - 2.2k

Quick shoutout Forrest Wall again he stole two bases yesterday for 15 fantasy points and he is still at only 2.2k.

Stacks

Houston Astros vs Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber somehow does better at Coors field than when away, he has a 3.57 ERA at home and a 5.05 ERA on the road, and today he is on the road. Houston ranks 12th in wRC+ vs lefties, and almost their entire lineup is a better than average hitter vs left. The Astros have the third highest run total on the day and I would be surprised if Austin Gomber can hold them off.

Washington Nationals vs Adam Mazur

The game total is super low at only 7.5, but I feel like Vegas in undermining how bad Adam Mazur has been. He has played four major league games and now has a 7.27 ERA and 1.96 WHIP. His walk rate of 19% is much higher than his K rate of 13%, so he constantly has traffic on the bases. A lot of the Nationals lineup can steal bases, and I expect them to do so today. Mazur also has some major splits, he is allowing only a .596 OPS to righties, but a whopping 1.054 OPS to lefties. CJ Abrams and Jesse Winker are both lefties, and should do very well today.

Fanduel

Pitchers

Hunter Greene - 10.3k (CIN vs PIT)

Rotogrinders seems pretty worried about the weather at this game so make sure to keep an eye on it, but assuming it plays, Greene is a great play at this price. Pittsburgh ranks 29th in OPS vs righties and 5th in K rate at 24.8%. Greene has a 26.6% K rate and a 3.87 SIERA, and his last start was against the Pirates where he had nine strikeouts and allowed zero earned runs through 6.1 innings. Greene's strikeout line is at 7, tied for the highest on the day.

Bobby Miller - 9.4k (LAD @ CWS)

This game another one with some weather issues, so double check if there are any delays expected before lock. Bobby Miller has been getting shelled this season, which was not what the Dodgers expected after his great rookie season last year. The good news is his xFIP and SIERA both show lots of positive regression. His K rate has been high at 26.7%, so he has the upside, and today he faces the White Sox who rank dead last in the league in OPS vs right handed pitchers. He's been dealing with injuries but he pitched 79 pitches in his last game and today he should get into the high 80s. If you use PrizePicks I also like his over 5.0 strikeouts line.

Hunter Brown - 9.2k (HOU vs COL)

Hunter Brown has been on a tear recently, he had a rough start to the season but his stats showed some regression was coming, and it sure did. He has allowed just seven runs over his last six starts, and he has at least seven strikeouts in four of those games. Brown gets a great matchup today vs the Rockies who can't hit on the road. They have an OPS of .656 vs right handed pitching and a K rate of 25.94%. Hunter Brown's strikeout line is at 7 today, and at 8k he is going to be very high owned, and for good reason.

Batters

Yordan Alvarez vs Austin Gomber (HOU vs COL) - 4k

Alvarez has a .330 average vs lefties and a .904 OPS. Austin Gomber is not a good pitcher and the Astros are projected for the third most runs on the day. With no Kyle Tucker Alvarez will have to do a lot of the work, and he is expected to. His odds to hit a home run today are +275 on Draftkings, which is a 27% chance.

Anthony Volpe vs David Peterson (NYY @ NYM) - 3.1k

The Yankees are projected for the 6th most runs on the day and Volpe looks like a good value at 3.1k. He consistently gets 9 fantasy points on Fanduel and then frequently breaks out for more. This makes him a great safe play in single entries as a one off. If the Yankees have themselves a nice day Volpe will get a 5th at bat and should be giving you a great fantasy day.

Forrest Wall vs Kyle Gibson (ATL vs STL) - 2k

Quick shoutout Forrest Wall again he stole two bases yesterday for 18 fantasy points and he is still the minimum price on Fanduel.

Stacks

Houston Astros vs Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber somehow does better at Coors field than when away, he has a 3.57 ERA at home and a 5.05 ERA on the road, and today he is on the road. Houston ranks 12th in wRC+ vs lefties, and almost their entire lineup is a better than average hitter vs left. The Astros have the third highest run total on the day and I would be surprised if Austin Gomber can hold them off.

Washington Nationals vs Adam Mazur

The game total is super low at only 7.5, but I feel like Vegas in undermining how bad Adam Mazur has been. He has played four major league games and now has a 7.27 ERA and 1.96 WHIP. His walk rate of 19% is much higher than his K rate of 13%, so he constantly has traffic on the bases. A lot of the Nationals lineup can steal bases, and I expect them to do so today. Mazur also has some major splits, he is allowing only a .596 OPS to righties, but a whopping 1.054 OPS to lefties. CJ Abrams and Jesse Winker are both lefties, and should do very well today.