MLB DFS Analysis Tuesday, June 18th

My favorite MLB DFS plays for today with statistical reasoning.

We have a ten game slate today kicking off at 7:05 E.T. The Rays vs Twins game seems sure to be delayed and even possibly delayed. Pablo Lopez is one of my favorite pitchers today so I will be keeping an eye on the weather. In this article I will cover the best Pitchers, Batters, and Stacks for both Draftkings and Fanduel. Some of the players we be repeated across both platforms, so I recommend simply reading the platform you are going to be playing on.

Draftkings

Pitchers

Pablo Lopez - 9k (MIN vs TBR)

Lopez has the highest K rate on the slate at 26.3%, and he also has the best SIERA after Tanner Houck. But, he is only 9k and gets one of the best matchups today. The Rays have been one of the most disappointing teams this season, they currently rank 28th in OPS vs righties, and they strikeout at the 9th highest rate. The Rays projected to start todays game are batting .189 vs Lopez as well. Lopez is highest projected pitcher according to RotoWire, and he is priced only as the 4th highest on Draftkings.

Alec Marsh - 7.6k (KCR @ OAK)

Marsh has been just better than the average pitcher this season. He has a K rate of 22.5%, and a xFIP- of 98. The appeal today is that he is projected for 6 strikeouts at only 7.6k. The A's have the second highest K rate in the league, as well as ranking 26th in OPS vs righties. Marsh is tied for the highest strikeout projection on the slate, and he's projected for less than 3 earned runs. He is a great value here and it feels like a very safe play.

Jonathan Cannon - 6.2k (CWS vs HOU)

Cannon is a very risky play, but he is going to be essentially unowned, and I think there is upside people are ignoring. Cannon is a rookie and started 8 games in triple a this season before being called up. In triple a he wasn't great, he had an ERA of 5.5 and a WHIP of 1.53, but in his 23.2 major league innings, he has been solid. He has a SIERA of 3.44, 4th best on the slate, and a K rate of 23.8%, 3rd best on the slate. Cannon has been allowing a lot of line drives, but he's been limiting soft contact a lot. Houston doesn't strike out that much, 19% vs righties, but without Kyle Tucker they have a .710 OPS, ranking them 12th in the league. It's still a tough matchup but it's not the Astros best lineup. Cannon pitched over 100 pitches in his last two starts, and if he does that again chances are he is paying off his price tag.

Griffin Canning - 5.5k (LAA vs MIL)

The Brewers offense is cold right now, in June, they are batting just .216 vs right handed pitching with a .645 OPS. Canning is the cheapest pitcher on the slate but sportsbooks project him for a pretty good day. He is heavily favored to have at least 5 strikeouts, and to pitch at least 17 outs, however he is favored to give up over 2 earned runs, at least two walks, and 5 hits. He is priced so low that if he does what is he is projected to do, he is paying off value easily. Just like yesterday, there are some good very cheap pitchers if you want to be able to afford the Dodgers hitters. However, he is still a very bad pitcher and is coming in at around 20% ownership, so it's not a bad idea to have some Brewers stacks as well.

Batters

Jarred Kelenic vs Casey Mize (ATL vs DET) - 3.2k

With both Ronald Acuna and Michael Harris II out with injury, the Braves have called on Jarred Kelenic to bat the lead off spot. So far, he has been amazing there, in 18 at bats at the lead off spot, Kelenic has 8 hits, 5 runs, and 3 RBIs, while hitting .444 with two home runs and a stolen base. The Braves are projected for the third most runs on the slate, and their red hot lead off hitter is only 3.2k.

Forrest Wall vs Casey Mize (ATL vs DET) - 2.5k

Wall got the start yesterday against righty Reene Olson, and he ended the day 1-3 with an RBI single. Not great but he also got caught stealing, which is rare for how quick he is, and if he steals a base, he is going to be a great value. Wall had five stolen bases in just 15 games last season, and at just 2.5k, I'll take the shot at a stolen base today. He also has a Hits+Runs+RBI line at 1.5, which is super rare for a player this cheap.

Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Austin Gomber

The Dodgers are going to be here as long as they are playing at Coors field. Just like yesterday, the Dodgers have the highest run total on the day, today it's at 6.5. Yesterday, they scored 9 runs without a single home run, but Ohtani, Freeman, and Jason Heyward were still in some winning DFS lineups. Gomber has been better than expected this season, but he still has a 4.63 xFIP at home, and allows 1.57 home runs per nine. The Dodgers are hitting .333 against Gomber on a large sample size of 60 at bats, with Freeman leading the way going 6 for 11 with two home runs.

Milwuakee Brewers vs Griffin Canning

It's not often that you see the worst pitcher on the day be one of the highest owned. Canning is projected for around 20% ownership, and while he does look like a good value at his price, there is a solid chance the Brewers light him up. The Brewers offense has been cold but the trio of Contreras, Yelich, and Adames looks to be healthy today, and they are being extremely under owned.

Kansas City Royals vs Hogan Harris

Hogan Harris had a 7.67 ERA through 8 starts in triple a this season and somehow has a 2.49 ERA through 25 innings in the majors now. His advanced stats show him being an average pitcher, his SIERA is 3.95 and his xFIP- is 101. He gives up a lot of hard contact, and he has an 85.5% left on base percentage, the highest on the slate after Michael Lorenzen. The Royals have lots off good hitters vs lefties all throughout their lineup, and I would not be surprised if Hogan Harris finally gets blown up.

Fanduel

Pitchers

Pablo Lopez - 9.7k (MIN vs TBR)

Lopez has the highest K rate on the slate at 26.3%, and he also has the best SIERA after Tanner Houck. But, he is only 9k and gets one of the best matchups today. The Rays have been one of the most disappointing teams this season, they currently rank 28th in OPS vs righties, and they strikeout at the 9th highest rate. The Rays projected to start todays game are batting .189 vs Lopez as well. Lopez is highest projected pitcher according to RotoWire, and he is priced only as the 3rd highest on Fanduel.

Alec Marsh - 8.8k (KCR @ OAK)

Marsh has been just better than the average pitcher this season. He has a K rate of 22.5%, and a xFIP- of 98. The appeal today is that he is projected for 6 strikeouts at only 8.8k. The A's have the second highest K rate in the league, as well as ranking 26th in OPS vs righties. Marsh is tied for the highest strikeout projection on the slate, and he's projected for less than 3 earned runs. He is a great value here and it feels like a very safe play.

Batters

Freddy Freeman vs Austin Gomber (LAD @ COL) - 4.1k

Freeman is 6 for 11 vs Austin Gomber including two home runs. Yesterday he was walked FIVE times and scored two times plus he added a single in the 9th inning. Freeman is in a great spot to go yard, and he is still underpriced considering the Dodgers are projected for 6.5 runs today at Coors.

Forrest Wall vs Casey Mize (ATL vs DET) - 2k

Wall got the start yesterday against righty Reene Olson, and he ended the day 1-3 with an RBI single. Not great but he also got caught stealing, which is rare for how quick he is, and if he steals a base, he is going to be a great value. Wall had five stolen bases in just 15 games last season, and at the minimum salary, I'll take that any day.

Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Austin Gomber

The Dodgers are going to be here as long as they are playing at Coors field. Just like yesterday, the Dodgers have the highest run total on the day, today it's at 6.5. Yesterday, they scored 9 runs without a single home run, but Ohtani, Freeman, and Jason Heyward were still in some winning DFS lineups. Gomber has been better than expected this season, but he still has a 4.63 xFIP at home, and allows 1.57 home runs per nine. The Dodgers are hitting .333 against Gomber on a large sample size of 60 at bats, with Freeman leading the way going 6 for 11 with two home runs.

Kansas City Royals vs Hogan Harris

Hogan Harris had a 7.67 ERA through 8 starts in triple a this season and somehow has a 2.49 ERA through 25 innings in the majors now. His advanced stats show him being an average pitcher, his SIERA is 3.95 and his xFIP- is 101. He gives up a lot of hard contact, and he has an 85.5% left on base percentage, the highest on the slate after Michael Lorenzen. The Royals have lots off good hitters vs lefties all throughout their lineup, and I would not be surprised if Hogan Harris finally gets blown up.