MLB DFS Analysis Wednesday, July 3rd

My favorite MLB DFS plays for today with statistical reasoning.

Today we only have an 11 game slate starting at 7:05 ET. There is some rain in a few ballparks today but no postponements are expected, some games may have a late start but they shouldn't be interrupted after they begin. In this article I will cover the best Pitchers, Batters, and Stacks for both Draftkings and Fanduel. Some of the players we be repeated across both platforms, so I recommend simply reading the platform you are going to be playing on.

Draftkings

Pitchers

Zach Wheeler - 9.8k (PHI @ CHC)

Wheeler is is currently the NL Cy Young frontrunner and he gets a great matchup today. Chicago has a 24.5% K rate vs right handed pitching, and their offense has been a bit below average recently ranking 19th in OPS in June. Wheeler is projected for six innings with seven strikeouts and two earned runs, which would be a great start. While Chris Sale has more K upside, Wheeler gets the much better matchup and should be able to go farther into the game.

Ryan Pepiot - 7.1k (TBR @ KCR)

Pepiot has been very good this season with a 3.51 SIERA, a 28.7% K rate, and a .203 opponent average. The reason he is all the way down at 7.1k is because the Royals only strike out 19.5% of the time. But I think that is too much of a discount, Pepiot is still a premier pitcher and the Royals have a very average offense. He is projected for five strikeouts and two earned runs. He has only gotten to 6 innings in 6 of his 14 starts this season, but if he does it today he will be great value.

Batters

Christian Yelich vs Dakota Hudson (MIL @ COL) - 6.3k

As I mention in the stacks portion, Dakota Hudson is a terrible pitcher and the Brewers are projected for 6.5 runs. Yelich has faced Hudson 20 times in his career and has eight walks, five hits, and two home runs for a .417 average and 1.733 OPS. Yelich is as expensive as I've seen him today but even then I think it's worth it.

Josh Smith vs Adam Mazur (TEX vs SDP) - 4.2k

Adam Mazur should not be in the MLB right now but the injured padres rotation forced an early call up. Mazur has started five games and has an ERA of 7.25 and a SIERA of 6.89, that is one. of the worst SIERAs I have seen and that is on a fairly large sample size of 22.1 innings. I would have put the Rangers a stack today but they have been such a bad offense recently, hiving only a .606 OPS vs righties since June 1st. Josh Smith has been the only elite hitter on the team recently, with a .300 average and .897 OPS in the same time span. He earned himself a move up the lineup and is now batting third, where in that spot he has a .911 OPS. I wouldn't be surprised if the entire Rangers offense gets hot again against Mazur, but I would count on Josh Smith the most.

Jackson Chourio vs Dakota Hudson (MIL @ COL) - 3.8k

Chourio is listed as likely batting 9th on Rotogrinders, and likely sitting on Rotowire. Of course if he is sitting do not play him but even bating 9th I like his upside. The Brewers are projected to score 6.5 runs, which would likely get Chourio a 4th at bat even in the 9 spot. Chourio has been amazing lately, in the last 30 days he is batting .324 with a .870 OPS. More specifically, against right handed pitching in the last 30 days he is batting .373 with a 1.067 OPS. Chourio is on a 9 game hitting streak and I do not expect that to end today.

Jose Miranda vs Keider Montero (MIN vs DET) - 3.7k

I had Miranda featured in my article about a week ago in a similar matchup against a bad right handed pitcher. Miranda went off that day for two doubles, a single, a walk, three RBIs and a Run. While I doubt that will happen again, I do expect another good night from Miranda. Since June 1st, he is batting .424 with a 1.214 OPS vs right handed pitchers. Today the righty that he faces has allowed 9 runs in 8.2 major league innings.

Stacks

Minnesota Twins vs Keider Montero

The Tigers pitching staff is dealing with injuries so they called up Keider Montero from triple a. He had a 5.03 ERA and 1.7 WHIP in triple a, and now in his two MLB starts this season, he has a 9.35 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Royce Lewis is out of the lineup with a groin injury, but the rest of the Twins lineup has been doing very well. The Twins are projected for 5.1 runs which is third on the slate.

Milwuakee Brewers vs Dakota Hudson

The Brewers have the highest run total on the slate by a wide margin, their 6.5 implied runs are followed by Dodgers and Rockies tied for 5.3. Dakota Hudson has been getting toyed with at Coors field, he has a 8.58 ERA at home, along with a .361 opponent average and a higher walk rate than K rate. Some of the Brewers bats have been very cold vs righties however, William Contreras, Joey Ortiz, and Rhys Hoskins all have OPS' bellow .500 since June first. Despite this, they are still projected for 6.5 runs and there is a lot of upside here today.

Fanduel

Pitchers

Zach Wheeler - 10.7k (PHI @ CHC)

Wheeler is is currently the NL Cy Young frontrunner and he gets a great matchup today. Chicago has a 24.5% K rate vs right handed pitching, and their offense has been a bit below average recently ranking 19th in OPS in June. Wheeler is projected for six innings with seven strikeouts and two earned runs, which would be a great start. While Chris Sale has more K upside, Wheeler gets the much better matchup and should be able to go farther into the game.

Ryan Pepiot - 8.9k (TBR @ KCR)

Pepiot has been very good this season with a 3.51 SIERA, a 28.7% K rate, and a .203 opponent average. The reason he isn't more expensive is because the Royals only strike out 19.5% of the time. But I do think Pepiot bring a lot of upside at this price, he is still a premier pitcher and the Royals have just an average offense. He is projected for five strikeouts and two earned runs. He has only gotten to 6 innings in 6 of his 14 starts this season, but if he does it today he will be great value.

Batters

Christian Yelich vs Dakota Hudson (MIL @ COL) - 4.5k

As I mention in the stacks portion, Dakota Hudson is a terrible pitcher and the Brewers are projected for 6.5 runs. Yelich has faced Hudson 20 times in his career and has eight walks, five hits, and two home runs for a .417 average and 1.733 OPS. Yelich is as expensive as I've seen him today but even then I think it's worth it.

Jackson Chourio vs Dakota Hudson (MIL @ COL) - 3.3k

Chourio is listed as likely batting 9th on Rotogrinders, and likely sitting on Rotowire. Of course if he is sitting do not play him but even bating 9th I like his upside. The Brewers are projected to score 6.5 runs, which would likely get Chourio a 4th at bat even in the 9 spot. Chourio has been amazing lately, in the last 30 days he is batting .324 with a .870 OPS. More specifically, against right handed pitching in the last 30 days he is batting .373 with a 1.067 OPS. Chourio is on a 9 game hitting streak and I do not expect that to end today.

Josh Smith vs Adam Mazur (TEX vs SDP) - 3k

Adam Mazur should not be in the MLB right now but the injured padres rotation forced an early call up. Mazur has started five games and has an ERA of 7.25 and a SIERA of 6.89, that is one. of the worst SIERAs I have seen and that is on a fairly large sample size of 22.1 innings. I would have put the Rangers a stack today but they have been such a bad offense recently, hiving only a .606 OPS vs righties since June 1st. Josh Smith has been the only elite hitter on the team recently, with a .300 average and .897 OPS in the same time span. He earned himself a move up the lineup and is now batting third, where in that spot he has a .911 OPS. I wouldn't be surprised if the entire Rangers offense gets hot again against Mazur, but I would count on Josh Smith the most.

Jose Miranda vs Keider Montero (MIN vs DET) - 2.9k

I had Miranda featured in my article about a week ago in a similar matchup against a bad right handed pitcher. Miranda went off that day for two doubles, a single, a walk, three RBIs and a Run. While I doubt that will happen again, I do expect another good night from Miranda. Since June 1st, he is batting .424 with a 1.214 OPS vs right handed pitchers. Today the righty that he faces has allowed 9 runs in 8.2 major league innings.

Stacks

Minnesota Twins vs Keider Montero

The Tigers pitching staff is dealing with injuries so they called up Keider Montero from triple a. He had a 5.03 ERA and 1.7 WHIP in triple a, and now in his two MLB starts this season, he has a 9.35 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Royce Lewis is out of the lineup with a groin injury, but the rest of the Twins lineup has been doing very well. The Twins are projected for 5.1 runs which is third on the slate.

Milwuakee Brewers vs Dakota Hudson

The Brewers have the highest run total on the slate by a wide margin, their 6.5 implied runs are followed by Dodgers and Rockies tied for 5.3. Dakota Hudson has been getting toyed with at Coors field, he has a 8.58 ERA at home, along with a .361 opponent average and a higher walk rate than K rate. Some of the Brewers bats have been very cold vs righties however, William Contreras, Joey Ortiz, and Rhys Hoskins all have OPS' bellow .500 since June first. Despite this, they are still projected for 6.5 runs and there is a lot of upside here today.ill be betting on the Astros to crush Yariel Rodriguez who ranks last in almost every pitching category today. The Astros bats have been hot as well, and that should definitely continue into today.