MLB DFS Analysis Thursday, May 30th

My favorite MLB DFS plays for today with statistical reasoning.

We have a tiny four game slate today beginning at 7:10 E.T. Weather is great today and won't be a factor. In this article I will cover the best Pitchers, Batters, and Stacks for both Draftkings and Fanduel. Some of the players we be repeated across both platforms, so I recommend simply reading the platform you are going to be playing on.

Draftkings

Pitchers

Jack Flaherty - 8.7k (DET @ BOS)

Flaherty has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in all of baseball this season, he is 7th in total strikeouts and he has an elite 33.3% K rate. He has a 3.84 ERA, but he is getting unlucky with the home runs, his xFIP- is 50 and his SIERA is 2.26, some of the best numbers in the league. He is only 8.7 K today and is only 4th in pitcher ownership, this is likely because Boston is 7th in OPS vs righties. While that is concerning the Red Sox offense has slowed down a lot recently, in May vs righties, they have a .684 OPS which would rank them 20th. On the season they also have the 7th highest K rate to righties, which us up to 4th in the league this month. Flaherty is in a great spot today and is projected for seven strikeouts.

Nick Pivetta - 7.8k (BOS vs DET)

Pivetta has been very inconsistent this season, with four very good starts and two starts where he got absolutely torched. He has the second highest K rate after Flaherty on the slate, at 27.7, but he also has the worst FIP on the slate. This is concerning but he has a Home Run to Fly Ball ratio double league average, and like I say almost every day, this stat is out of control of the pitcher and should regress back to the mean. If Pivetta can limit the power today he is in a great spot, Detroit has league average power vs righties, and is 9th highest in K rate. I would avoid playing Flaherty and Pivetta together, because only one can get the win, but Pivetta is a good lower owned high upside play.

Christian Scott - 6.9k (NYM vs ARI)

Scott has had a pretty good start to his rookie campaign. He is almost exactly league average in ERA, FIP, and xFIP, and has a K rate of 22.8% and WHIP of 1.1. Arizona is one of the worst teams in the league vs righties, and the game total is the lowest on the day at seven. Scott has had three quality starts in his first four starts, and while I know that doesn't score you points on Draftkings, if he goes six innings and six strikeouts, he will be well worth this price.

Batters

Luis Rengifo vs Carlos Rodon (LAA vs NYY) - 4.6k

Rengifo is on an absolute tear, over the last 30 days he is batting .414 with a 1.107 OPS. Even more insane, he hits even better vs lefties, he has a .515 average and 1.287 OPS vs lefties this season. Today he faces Carlos Rodon who has kept his ERA down but his FIP shows signs of regression. Rengifo is the hottest hitter in baseball and he is in an amazing spot today.

Sean Murphy vs Trevor Williams (TOR @ CWS) - 3.5k

The Braves have the highest team total on the day, and Murphy is a great value at 3.5k. He had a .843 OPS last season, and now is going to play his third game of the season after returning from an injury. He is 2 for 7 since returning, and has one double in three career at bats vs Williams. Murphy's price should only continue to increase until it is around his teammates like Michael Harris at 4.4k and Ozzie Albies at 5.3k.

Nolan Schanuel vs Carlos Rodon (LAA vs NYY) - 3.3k

Once the 11th overall pick with a .447 average at Florida Atlantic, Schanuel finds himself leading off for the Angels. He hasn't had a great start to his MLB career, with a .246 average and .670 OPS through 79 games. He is a little bit more enticing today against the lefty Carlos Rodon, Schanuel has a pretty significant jump in OPS to .738 when facing lefties. As you'll see in the Stacks portion, I am very anti Rodon today, and what better way to target than then the leadoff hitter.

Stacks

Los Angeles Angels vs Carlos Rodon

This play works as a great leverage play and simply a great play regardless in my opinion. Rodon is projected for extremely high ownership on both Draftkings and Fanduel, despite being the worst pitcher on the slate. He ranks last out of pitchers today in SIERA, and second to last in FIP and K rate. The Angels continue to be overlooked, and I was surprised when I saw how good they have been recently. Throughout May, the Angels have a .292 average an .830 OPS, this ranks first in the league and throughout the entire season they are 4th vs lefties. Against Rodon, on a tiny sample size of 12 at bats the Angels are batting .500 with two home runs. People are jumping on Rodon because of his ERA, but regression is coming for him and the Angels are somehow one of the best offenses in the league.

New York Yankees vs Patrick Sandoval

The Yankees are the highest owned stack on the slate, which makes total sense. Sandoval has a 5.6 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, and the Yankees are a scary offense. The Yankees are batting .245 with a .770 OPS vs lefties this month, which would rank them 6th across the entire season. Sandoval has faced the Yankees three times, and had two good starts and got blown up for five runs the other time. There aren't any pitcher on todays slate who are truly bad, but Sandoval is the closest thing to it and the Yankees offense always brings great upside.

Fanduel

Pitchers

Jack Flaherty - 10.3k (DET @ BOS)

Flaherty has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in all of baseball this season, he is 7th in total strikeouts and he has an elite 33.3% K rate. He has a 3.84 ERA, but he is getting unlucky with the home runs, his xFIP- is 50 and his SIERA is 2.26, some of the best numbers in the league. Boston is 7th in OPS vs righties, and while that is concerning, the Red Sox offense has slowed down a lot recently, in May vs righties, they have a .684 OPS which would rank them 20th. On the season they also have the 7th highest K rate to righties, which us up to 4th in the league this month. Flaherty is in a great spot today and is projected for seven strikeouts.

Nick Pivetta - 8.8k (BOS vs DET)

Pivetta has been very inconsistent this season, with four very good starts and two starts where he got absolutely torched. He has the second highest K rate after Flaherty on the slate, at 27.7, but he also has the worst FIP on the slate. This is concerning but he has a Home Run to Fly Ball ratio double league average, and like I say almost every day, this stat is out of control of the pitcher and should regress back to the mean. If Pivetta can limit the power today he is in a great spot, Detroit has league average power vs righties, and is 9th highest in K rate. I would avoid playing Flaherty and Pivetta together, because only one can get the win, but Pivetta is a good lower owned high upside play.

Christian Scott - 7.9k (NYM vs ARI)

Scott has had a pretty good start to his rookie campaign. He is almost exactly league average in ERA, FIP, and xFIP, and has a K rate of 22.8% and WHIP of 1.1. Arizona is one of the worst teams in the league vs righties, and the game total is the lowest on the day at seven. Scott has had three quality starts in his first four starts, and if he gets one today he will be well worth his price on Fanduel.

Batters

Luis Rengifo vs Carlos Rodon (LAA vs NYY) - 3.2k

Rengifo is on an absolute tear, over the last 30 days he is batting .414 with a 1.107 OPS. Even more insane, he hits even better vs lefties, he has a .515 average and 1.287 OPS vs lefties this season. Today he faces Carlos Rodon who has kept his ERA down but his FIP shows signs of regression. Rengifo is the hottest hitter in baseball and he is in an amazing spot today.

Michael Harris vs Trevor Williams (ATL vs WSH) - 3.2k

Michael Harris is leading off for Atlanta now that Acuna is out for the rest of the season. Atlanta has the highest run total on the slate at 5.2, so I would expect their lead off hitter to score some fantasy points. Harris has two singles in four at bats vs Williams in his career, and Williams is worse vs left handed batters which helps Harris. Harris also has stolen base upside, and as a leadoff hitter that will be more expected of him, and if he starts to hit better his price will shoot up, so I'll take him when he's cheap.

Nolan Schanuel vs Carlos Rodon (LAA vs NYY) - 2.5k

Once the 11th overall pick with a .447 average at Florida Atlantic, Schanuel finds himself leading off for the Angels. He hasn't had a great start to his MLB career, with a .246 average and .670 OPS through 79 games. He is a little bit more enticing today against the lefty Carlos Rodon, Schanuel has a pretty significant jump in OPS to .738 when facing lefties. As you'll see in the Stacks portion, I am very anti Rodon today, and what better way to target than then the leadoff hitter for only 2.5k.

Stacks

Los Angeles Angels vs Carlos Rodon

This play works as a great leverage play and simply a great play regardless in my opinion. Rodon is projected for extremely high ownership on both Draftkings and Fanduel, despite being the worst pitcher on the slate. He ranks last out of pitchers today in SIERA, and second to last in FIP and K rate. The Angels continue to be overlooked, and I was surprised when I saw how good they have been recently. Throughout May, the Angels have a .292 average an .830 OPS, this ranks first in the league and throughout the entire season they are 4th vs lefties. Against Rodon, on a tiny sample size of 12 at bats the Angels are batting .500 with two home runs. People are jumping on Rodon because of his ERA, but regression is coming for him and the Angels are somehow one of the best offenses in the league.

New York Yankees vs Patrick Sandoval

The Yankees are the highest owned stack on the slate, which makes total sense. Sandoval has a 5.6 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, and the Yankees are a scary offense. The Yankees are batting .245 with a .770 OPS vs lefties this month, which would rank them 6th across the entire season. Sandoval has faced the Yankees three times, and had two good starts and got blown up for five runs the other time. There aren't any pitcher on todays slate who are truly bad, but Sandoval is the closest thing to it and the Yankees offense always brings great upside.