MLB DFS Analysis Thursday, June 27th

My favorite MLB DFS plays for today with statistical reasoning.

Yesterday was a very odd day for DFS, and it looks to be a little more normal today. We have only four games on the slate on Draftkings, starting at 7:07 ET, and 6 games on the slate for Fanduel starting at 6:20 ET. Pitching was a mess yesterday but we have some elite pitchers today. Weather is great today so we won't have to worry about weather dictating the slate like yesterday. In this article I will cover the best Pitchers, Batters, and Stacks for both Draftkings and Fanduel. Some of the players we be repeated across both platforms, so I recommend simply reading the platform you are going to be playing on.

Draftkings

Pitchers

Jack Flaherty - 9.8k (DET @ LAA)

Flaherty has been an absolute stud this season, he has upped his K rate by 10% from last season and lowered his SIERA from 4.53 to 2.40. His K rate this season is 33.3%, the highest on the slate by a large margin. The Angels are a great matchup, they are currently 22nd in OPS vs righties at .676, and this month they have been even a little worse with an OPS of .664. The Angels have a K rate of 23.2% and are projected for 3.6 runs, which even there feels generous. The rest of the pitchers on Draftkings are a complete mess so I will be happy to roster Flaherty in close to 100% of my teams.

Anyone Else - 7k - 8.6k

Other than Jack Flaherty at the top and Davis Daniel at the bottom, every other pitcher on the slate looks the same. They all have a SIERA between 4 and 4.5, and a K rate around 20%. Rodon looks like the best one but he got shelled in his last two starts for five and seven runs. Berrios is projected for good value, but his K rate is down to 17.5% this season and the Yankees offense is scary. Ben Lively and Michael Wacha might limit the earned runs but they are both projected for under 3.5 strikeouts. Abbot is getting a lot of ownership but he has the worst SIERA on the slate and the Cardinals are hitting .357 against him. Mikolas has been fairly bad vs the Reds allowing a .270 batting average but he does project for solid value even though his K rate is just 18.2%. My advice would be to make your pick based on how much salary you have left after building the rest of your lineup first, because I can't possibly decide which one of these pitchers will be the right one to have.

Batters

Juan Soto vs Jose Berrios (NYY @ TOR) - 6.2k

Soto is going to get on base a lot today. This season he has a .429 OBP vs right handed pitching with a .279 ISO as well. In nine career at bats vs Berrios, he has gotten on base in six of them including a home run. Of course Aaron Judge will probably need to have a good day as well to give Soto some runs, so a mini stack with the two of them is not a bad idea.

Riley Greene vs Davis Daniel (DET @ LAA) - 5.2k

The Tigers are facing Davis Daniel today who is a bad triple a pitcher, because of this their run total is at 4.6 despite how bad their offense has been recently. If they do score five plus runs, Greene will be the focal point of the offense. He has a .912 OPS vs righties with a .244 ISO. He is also +350 to hit a home run today which is a 22.2% chance, and for how small the slate is those are some of the best odds you will find (Jose Ramirez is +425 just for reference).

Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs Trevor Rogers

The Phillies lead the slate with a projection of 5.2 runs. Rogers has been good vs the Phillies in past seasons but when they faced each other this season the Phillies had 9 hits and 5 runs in 3.1 innings. Rogers also has the highest SIERA on the slate at 4.62, and the Phillies have the 4th best offense vs left handed pitching.

Detroit Tigers vs Davis Daniel

The Angels called up Davis Daniel from triple a where he had a 5.33 ERA and 1.5 WHIP. Daniel pitched 12.1 innings last season in the majors and had an impressive 2.19 ERA, however, his SIERA was 5.97 and his xFIP was 6.0. The Tigers have been a bad offense recently but this would be the matchup for them to get going.

Fanduel

Pitchers

Jack Flaherty - 10.8k (DET @ LAA)

Flaherty has been an absolute stud this season, he has upped his K rate by 10% from last season and lowered his SIERA from 4.53 to 2.40. His K rate this season is 33.3%, the highest on the slate by a large margin. The Angels are a great matchup, they are currently 22nd in OPS vs righties at .676, and this month they have been even a little worse with an OPS of .664. The Angels have a K rate of 23.2% and are projected for 3.9 runs, which seems a little generous to me.

Zach Wheeler - 10.6k (PHI vs MIA)

We're keeping it pricy here with Zach Wheeler, Wheeler is currently the NL favorite to win the Cy Young, and gets a dream matchup vs an abysmal Marlins offense. The Marlins rank 28th in OPS vs righties at .648, and have been even colder of late with an OPS of .577 in June. Also, the Marlins have been striking out at a 22.2% clip this season but it's up to 24.9% vs right handers this month. Wheeler has a 27.2% K rate and is projected for 7 strikeouts today. Miami also has a 2.9 implied run total which is the lowest I've seen in a long time. This is an absolute smash spot and should probably be your highest owned pitcher.

Batters

Juan Soto vs Jose Berrios (NYY @ TOR) - 4.4k

Soto is going to get on base a lot today. This season he has a .429 OBP vs right handed pitching with a .279 ISO as well. In nine career at bats vs Berrios, he has gotten on base in six of them including a home run. Of course Aaron Judge will probably need to have a good day as well to give Soto some runs, so a mini stack with the two of them is not a bad idea.

Edmundo Sosa vs Trevor Rogers (PHI vs MIA) - 2.6k

Sosa is not yet confirmed in the lineup, but he usually gets to start against left handed pitching. He has a 1.067 OPS vs lefties on a decent sample size of 64 plate appearances. Sosa is also 3 for 5 vs Rogers with a double and home run. The Phillies are projected for the most runs on the slate and if Sosa starts at just 2.6k he will be one of my most rostered players.

Heston Kjerstad vs Jon Gray (BAL vs TEX) - 2.4k

Kjerstad was once the second overall pick in the MLB draft and now is getting some time in the majors again. He is a power bat with a .998 OPS in triple a this season including 19 home runs. In his 52 major league at bats, he has a .212 average and .646 OPS with two home runs. Lefties are hitting .276 with a .803 OPS vs Jon Gray, so Kjerstad gets a great matchup at just 2.4k.

Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs Trevor Rogers

The Phillies lead the slate with a projection of 5.2 runs. Rogers has been good vs the Phillies in past seasons but when they faced each other this season the Phillies had 9 hits and 5 runs in 3.1 innings. Rogers also has the highest SIERA on the slate at 4.62, and the Phillies have the 4th best offense vs left handed pitching.

Detroit Tigers vs Davis Daniel

The Angels called up Davis Daniel from triple a where he had a 5.33 ERA and 1.5 WHIP. Daniel pitched 12.1 innings last season in the majors and had an impressive 2.19 ERA, however, his SIERA was 5.97 and his xFIP was 6.0. The Tigers have been a bad offense recently but this would be the matchup for them to get going.