MLB DFS Analysis Monday, July 1st

My favorite MLB DFS plays for today with statistical reasoning.

Today we only have three games on the main slate today, which is an early one kicking off at 3:07 ET. Weather won't be a factor in any of the three games. In this article I will cover the best Pitchers, Batters, and Stacks for both Draftkings and Fanduel. Some of the players we be repeated across both platforms, so I recommend simply reading the platform you are going to be playing on.

Draftkings

Pitchers

Hunter Brown - 8.5k (HOU @ TOR)

Mackenzie Gore is the best pitcher on the slate, but he is facing a Mets lineup that had a near 1.000 OPS vs lefties in June. Hunter Brown is not far behind Gore statistically and has been even better recently, on top of that, he gets a much better matchup. Toronto had a .694 OPS vs right handed pitchers in June, which is right around average. They do have a pretty low K rate at 19.8% on the season vs righties. Hunter Brown has pitched 7 straight quality starts averaging 6.9 strikeouts in those games. Houston is -147 in this matchup so Brown will look to get the win also.

Batters

Yordan Alvarez vs Yariel Rodriguez (HOU @ TOR) - 5.7k

Alvarez has been great since Kyle Tuckers injury, Alvarez has a .344 average and 1.112 OPS in the last 30 days. Yariel Rodriguez has been bad this season with a 5.6 ERA, 5.11 SIERA, and .292 opponent average. Draftkings currently has Alvarez HR at +225, which is a 31% chance.

Yainer Diaz vs Yariel Rodriguez (HOU @ TOR) - 4.1k

Similar to Alvarez, Diaz gets a great matchup today and has been red hot. Diaz is on a 9 game hitting streak with 15 hits in that span. Over the last month, Diaz is batting .393 with a 1.050 OPS vs right handed pitchers. These stats for only 4.1k is a bargain.

Nick Senzel vs David Peterson (WSH vs NYM) - 3.3k

Senzel is a good low priced play on Draftkings. He has been much better vs lefties this season with a .788 OPS compared to his .645 OPS vs righties. He has been good vs David Peterson in the past as well going 4 for 9 with a home run and a double.

Stacks

Houston Astros vs Yariel Rodriguez

With such a small slate it's smart to play a bit of everything, however I am going to be lower than the field on the Brewers even though they have the highest team total on the slate. They face Austin Gomber who has a 3.57 ERA at home surprisingly, and the Brewers only had a .617 OPS vs lefties last month. Instead I will be betting on the Astros to crush Yariel Rodriguez who ranks last in almost every pitching category today. The Astros bats have been hot as well, and that should definitely continue into today.

Fanduel

Pitchers

Hunter Brown - 9.3k (HOU @ TOR)

Mackenzie Gore is the best pitcher on the slate, but he is facing a Mets lineup that had a near 1.000 OPS vs lefties in June. Hunter Brown is not far behind Gore statistically and has been even better recently, on top of that, he gets a much better matchup. Toronto had a .694 OPS vs right handed pitchers in June, which is right around average. They do have a pretty low K rate at 19.8% on the season vs righties. Hunter Brown has pitched 7 straight quality starts averaging 6.9 strikeouts in those games. Houston is -147 in this matchup so Brown will look to get the win also.

Batters

Yordan Alvarez vs Yariel Rodriguez (HOU @ TOR) - 4.1k

Alvarez has been great since Kyle Tuckers injury, Alvarez has a .344 average and 1.112 OPS in the last 30 days. Yariel Rodriguez has been bad this season with a 5.6 ERA, 5.11 SIERA, and .292 opponent average. Draftkings currently has Alvarez HR at +225, which is a 31% chance.

Yainer Diaz vs Yariel Rodriguez (HOU @ TOR) - 2.9k

Similar to Alvarez, Diaz gets a great matchup today and has been red hot. Diaz is on a 9 game hitting streak with 15 hits in that span. Over the last month, Diaz is batting .393 with a 1.050 OPS vs right handed pitchers. These stats for only 2.9k is insane value.

Nick Senzel vs David Peterson (WSH vs NYM) - 2.5k

Senzel is a good low priced play on Draftkings. He has been much better vs lefties this season with a .788 OPS compared to his .645 OPS vs righties. He has been good vs David Peterson in the past as well going 4 for 9 with a home run and a double.

Stacks

Houston Astros vs Yariel Rodriguez

With such a small slate it's smart to play a bit of everything, however I am going to be lower than the field on the Brewers even though they have the highest team total on the slate. They face Austin Gomber who has a 3.57 ERA at home surprisingly, and the Brewers only had a .617 OPS vs lefties last month. Instead I will be betting on the Astros to crush Yariel Rodriguez who ranks last in almost every pitching category today. The Astros bats have been hot as well, and that should definitely continue into today.