MLB DFS Analysis Monday, June 23rd

My favorite MLB DFS plays for today with statistical reasoning.

We have a nine game slate today kicking off at 7:10 E.T. Weather is in full summer effect with some ballparks reaching high 90s today. Run totals are higher now and balls will fly easier in the warm weather. In this article I will cover the best Pitchers, Batters, and Stacks for both Draftkings and Fanduel. Some of the players we be repeated across both platforms, so I recommend simply reading the platform you are going to be playing on.

Draftkings

Pitchers

Cole Ragans - 10.1k (KCR vs MIA)

This is an absolute smash spot for Ragans, the Marlins are absolutely awful vs left handed pitching. Their OPS vs lefties is .596, the only sub .600 team in the league. Ragans has been elite with a 28.9% K rate and 3.30 SIERA, and he is almost sure to pick up a win today as the Royals are -240 favorites. Even though the Marlins have a fairly low K rate at 21.4%, they have recently allowed lefties Mackenzie Gore and rookie DJ Herz to have 10 and 13 strikeout starts vs them. Expect a big day for Ragans. The only issue is the 98 degree weather, balls will fly more and Ragans likely won't go more than 6 innings. Regardless, he is heavily projected for over 6.5 strikeouts, so the spot still looks great.

Griffin Canning - 6.1k (LAA vs OAK)

This is a bad on bad matchup; the Athletics are a terrible offense and Griffin Canning is a terrible pitcher. The As rank 26th in team in OPS vs righties, and over the last 30 days, they rank last with an OPS of .598. Over the last 7 days however, it is up to .710, but that doesn't scare me too much. Canning is a pitcher where I typically target the team facing him, but with how bad the As are he looks like a good value. Canning has only a 15% strikeout rate and a whopping 4.93 SIERA, absolutely terrible numbers, but it won't take much for Canning to pay off this price.

Batters

Rafael Devers vs Chris Bassitt (BOS vs TOR) - 5.7k

Devers has amazing splits in this matchup. He has a .980 OPS vs right handed pitching, and Bassitt is allowing a .825 OPS to left handed bats. Devers has faced Bassitt 11 times in his career, and he has five hits and two home runs.

Jurickson Profar vs Patrick Corbin (SD vs WSH) - 4k

Profar has been incredible vs left handed pitching this season. He has a wRC+ of 194 and OPS of 1.020. Patrick Corbin has a 4.89 SIERA and is allowing a .301 opponent average, and because of this the Padres have a 4.9 implied run total today. Profar is also 3 for 7 vs Corbin and will be batting 3rd. If the Padres do put up five runs today, Profar will surely be a big part of the offense.

Tyler Soderstrom vs Griffin Canning (OAK @ LAA) - 2.3k

I don't understand why Soderstrom is still priced this low. He has an .811 OPS this season and six home runs in just 37 games. He has been even better recently, in June he is batting .288 with a .949 OPS and five home runs. Griffin Canning is a bad pitcher and allows a .904 OPS to left handed batters. Soderstrom will be in a lot of my lineups today at that price.

Stacks

Los Angeles Angels vs Luis Medina

The Angels have the 5th highest implied run total on the day at 4.8, and they are also one of the cheapest stacks. Dating back to last season, Luis Medina has a 4.92 SIERA and 1.51 WHIP, some terrible numbers. This season, Medina has been good vs lefties but allows a .829 OPS to righties, so Luis Rengifo, Logan O'Hoppe, and Taylor Ward look like good plays. The Angles lineup looks pretty rough on paper, but I can't ignore their run total today at this price.

Cincinati Reds vs Bailey Falter

The Reds get a good matchup today against a bad left handed pitcher. The Reds offense has been disappointing this season but they are still good vs lefties. Over the last 30 days the Reds have a .267 average and .741 OPS ranking them 12th in the league. Bailey Falter has a 4.72 SIERA and the Reds have been good vs him in the past. Tyler Stephenson is 5 for 11 vs Falter with a home run, and Stuart Fairchild will likely lead off for only 2.8k. The weather is nice and the Reds are projected for 5.2 Runs, the second highest on the slate after the Royals.

Fanduel

Pitchers

Cole Ragans - 11k (KCR vs MIA)

This is an absolute smash spot for Ragans, the Marlins are absolutely awful vs left handed pitching. Their OPS vs lefties is .596, the only sub .600 team in the league. Ragans has been elite with a 28.9% K rate and 3.30 SIERA, and he is almost sure to pick up a win today as the Royals are -240 favorites. Even though the Marlins have a fairly low K rate at 21.4%, they have recently allowed lefties Mackenzie Gore and rookie DJ Herz to have 10 and 13 strikeout starts vs them. Expect a big day for Ragans. The only issue is the 98 degree weather, balls will fly more and Ragans likely won't go more than 6 innings. Regardless, he is heavily projected for over 6.5 strikeouts, so the spot still looks great.

Matt Waldron - 8.3k (SD vs WSH)

Matt Waldron has completely transformed into one of the Padres best pitchers this season. The knuckleballer was frequently shelled last season and ended with a 4.35 ERA. Over the last 8 starts however, Waldron has looked amazing, in that span he has a 1.82 ERA, 24.7% K rate, 3.58 SIERA, and .184 opponent average. While his SIERA suggests a bit of regression, it's still a great number. The reason Waldron is here is because of his quality start and win potential. The Padres are -200 favorites today and Waldron is heavily favored to go at least 6 innings, giving him very good odds at a win. Waldron's last five starts have also all been quality starts, going over 6 innings in four of the five games as well. Waldron is only projected for 4 strikeouts because the Nationals don't strike out much, but if Waldron goes six innings, allows two earned runs, and picks up the quality start and win, he is one of the best values on the slate and he's only projected for 5% ownership.

Batters

Rafael Devers vs Chris Bassitt (BOS vs TOR) - 3.7k

Devers has amazing splits in this matchup. He has a .980 OPS vs right handed pitching, and Bassitt is allowing a .825 OPS to left handed bats. Devers has faced Bassitt 11 times in his career, and he has five hits and two home runs.

Jurickson Profar vs Patrick Corbin (SD vs WSH) - 3.1k

Profar has been incredible vs left handed pitching this season. He has a wRC+ of 194 and OPS of 1.020. Patrick Corbin has a 4.89 SIERA and is allowing a .301 opponent average, and because of this the Padres have a 4.9 implied run total today. Profar is also 3 for 7 vs Corbin and will be batting 3rd. If the Padres do put up five runs today, Profar will surely be a big part of the offense.

Forrest Wall vs Lance Lynn (ATL vs STL) - 2k

Once again I am running it back with Forrest Wall at 2k. He is most likely going to be batting 8th vs righty Lance Lynn, and he has gotten on base in 7 of his 19 major league plate appearances vs a righty. In those seven times he's been on base, he's stolen three bases and been caught stealing twice. If he gets a single or a walk today he will likely try to steal, and if he is successful, he is immediately paying off his 2k price tag.

Stacks

Los Angeles Angels vs Luis Medina

The Angels have the 5th highest implied run total on the day at 4.8, and they are also one of the cheapest stacks. Dating back to last season, Luis Medina has a 4.92 SIERA and 1.51 WHIP, some terrible numbers. This season, Medina has been good vs lefties but allows a .829 OPS to righties, so Luis Rengifo, Logan O'Hoppe, and Taylor Ward look like good plays. The Angles lineup looks pretty rough on paper, but I can't ignore their run total today at this price.

Cincinati Reds vs Bailey Falter

The Reds get a good matchup today against a bad left handed pitcher. The Reds offense has been disappointing this season but they are still good vs lefties. Over the last 30 days the Reds have a .267 average and .741 OPS ranking them 12th in the league. Bailey Falter has a 4.72 SIERA and the Reds have been good vs him in the past. Tyler Stephenson is 5 for 11 vs Falter with a home run and he is only 2.7k on Fanduel. The weather is nice and the Reds are projected for 5.2 Runs, the second highest on the slate after the Royals.