MLB DFS Analysis Monday, June 17th

My favorite MLB DFS plays for today with statistical reasoning.

I'm back today to cover a nine game slate starting at 6:40 E.T. Weather is perfect so we don't have to worry about any delays. In this article I will cover the best Pitchers, Batters, and Stacks for both Draftkings and Fanduel. Some of the players we be repeated across both platforms, so I recommend simply reading the platform you are going to be playing on.

Draftkings

Pitchers

Paul Skenes - 9.5k (PIT vs CIN)

Paul Skenes' strikeout prop on sportsbooks is at 8, and he is heavily favored to pitch six innings as well as allow less than two runs. These are the odds you typically see with pitchers around 11k and Skenes is only the third highest priced pitcher on Draftkings. Cincinnati strikes out at the 3rd highest rate in the league and Skenes has a crazy 35% K rate. This is a great spot for the electric rookie, just don't be surprised if ownership is around 50%.

David Peterson - 6k (NYM vs TEX)

Peterson seems to have lost his ability to strike batters out. Last season he was a high K rate guy with a 26% K rate, and the year before it was 27.8%. In his first three games this season it is at 8.1%. I'll be playing both sides of this game, because there is a chance Peterson lost his stuff and is ready to get blown up, but there is also a chance he gets closer to where he was the last couple of seasons and this is a great value. Texas is the 8th worst team vs lefties, so Peterson can hopefully limit the runs, and his strikeout prop is at 4.5, which is great value for his price tag. Peterson will likely have to be in your lineups if you want to stack some Dodgers, and he has a good chance to be the top value pitcher today.

Batters

Freddy Freeman vs Cal Quantrill (LAD @ COL) - 6.3k

Freeman is crazy expensive today, but he is in such a great situation he can still easily make the price tag worth it. The Dodgers are projected for 7.3 runs today at Coors, and Freeman has been looking like his usual self again with an OPS of 1.170 in June. Freeman has also been much better vs righties this season, with a .337 average and 1.024 OPS, today he faces righty Cal Quantrill who he is 6 for 12 against in his career.

Davis Wendzel vs David Peterson (TEX vs NYM) - 2k

Wenzel was drafted 41st overall in 2019, and after batting .286 with a .913 OPS in triple a, he has been called up. In the majors he has been terrible, he has 3 hits in 34 at bats for a .088 average. However, there are reasons to think that will get better. In string training this season, he has a .366 average and .950 OPS, and in triple a he was much better vs lefties, and today he faces lefty David Peterson. Yes, there is a definite chance he goes 0 for 4, but for the minimum salary on Draftkings, I'll take my chances with Wendzel.

Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cal Quantrill

The Dodgers are kicking off a four game series in Colorado, and they will likely be the highest owned team for each of those days. While I often like to fade the over owned stacks, I can't ignore this matchup. Quantrill has been pretty good this season, with a 3.3 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. But as is the norm for Colorado pitchers, he is much worse at home with a 4.49 xFIP and 1.55 HR/9. The Dodgers are projected for an insane 7.3 runs, so of course they are worth rostering.

Colorado Rockies vs James Paxton

People are always quick to forget the Rockies on Coors days. Today the Dodgers are going to be extremely high owned, but the Rockies will be a lot less so. Paxton has been pitching with a much better ERA than his SIERA and xFIP would suggest, in fact, he is the worst pitcher on the slate according to those metrics. Regression is on the way, and last week Paxton was blown up by the Pirates for 6 runs in 1.2 innings, and maybe the Rockies can do something like that today. The Rockies are very good vs lefties at home, with a .290 average and .823 OPS, ranking first in the league.

Philidephia Phillies vs Randy Vasquez

As a Padres fan myself I have witnessed Vasquez's terrible pitching all season, and seen him get bailed out by double play after double play. He is allowing an insane .319 opponent average; he has the 4th highest SIERA on the slate, and his K rate is 15%. The Phillies are a scary offense and they are projected for 5.5 runs, second today behind the Dodgers. The Phillies have dominated the Padres in recent history, and I don't see that changing today.

Fanduel

Pitchers

Paul Skenes - 10.3k (PIT vs CIN)

Paul Skenes' strikeout prop on sportsbooks is at 8, and he is heavily favored to pitch six innings as well as allow less than two runs. These are the odds you typically see with pitchers around 11k and Skenes is only the third highest priced pitcher on Fanduel. Cincinnati strikes out at the 3rd highest rate in the league and Skenes has a crazy 35% K rate. This is a great spot for the electric rookie, but do expect a lot of ownership, so you'll have to get different somewhere else.

David Peterson - 7.1k (NYM vs TEX)

Peterson seems to have lost his ability to strike batters out. Last season he was a high K rate guy with a 26% K rate, and the year before it was 27.8%. In his first three games this season it is at 8.1%. I'll be playing both sides of this game, because there is a chance Peterson lost his stuff and is ready to get blown up, but there is also a chance he gets closer to where he was the last couple of seasons and this is a great value. Texas is the 8th worst team vs lefties, so Peterson can hopefully limit the runs, and his strikeout prop is at 4.5, which is great value for his price tag. Peterson will likely have to be in your lineups if you want to stack some Dodgers, and he has a good chance to be the top value pitcher today.

Batters

Freddy Freeman vs Cal Quantrill (LAD @ COL) - 4.1k

Freeman is crazy expensive today, but he is in such a great situation he can still easily make the price tag worth it. The Dodgers are projected for 7.3 runs today at Coors, and Freeman has been looking like his usual self again with an OPS of 1.170 in June. Freeman has also been much better vs righties this season, with a .337 average and 1.024 OPS, today he faces righty Cal Quantrill who he is 6 for 12 against in his career.

Davis Wendzel vs David Peterson (TEX vs NYM) - 2k

Wenzel was drafted 41st overall in 2019, and after batting .286 with a .913 OPS in triple a, he has been called up. In the majors he has been terrible, he has 3 hits in 34 at bats for a .088 average. However, there are reasons to think that will get better. In string training this season, he has a .366 average and .950 OPS, and in triple a he was much better vs lefties, and today he faces lefty David Peterson. Yes, there is a definite chance he goes 0 for 4, but for the minimum salary on Fanduel, I'll take my chances with Wendzel.

Forrest Wall vs Reene Olson (ATL vs DET) - 2k

There is a good chance Wall does not start, and then of course do not put him in your lineups. The Braves called him up this morning to potentially replace Adam Duvall or Ramon Laureano in the lineup when facing right handed pitching. Wall got a short 15 game stint in the majors last season, and was great, he had 6 hits and two walks on 15 plate appearances, and he stole 5 bases. If Wall starts, his potential to steal a base for the minimum salary on Fanduel is great, and worth getting into a lot of lineups.

Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cal Quantrill

The Dodgers are kicking off a four game series in Colorado, and they will likely be the highest owned team for each of those days. While I often like to fade the over owned stacks, I can't ignore this matchup. Quantrill has been pretty good this season, with a 3.3 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. But as is the norm for Colorado pitchers, he is much worse at home with a 4.49 xFIP and 1.55 HR/9. The Dodgers are projected for an insane 7.3 runs, so of course they are worth rostering.

Colorado Rockies vs James Paxton

People are always quick to forget the Rockies on Coors days. Today the Dodgers are going to be extremely high owned, but the Rockies will be a lot less so. Paxton has been pitching with a much better ERA than his SIERA and xFIP would suggest, in fact, he is the worst pitcher on the slate according to those metrics. Regression is on the way, and last week Paxton was blown up by the Pirates for 6 runs in 1.2 innings, and maybe the Rockies can do something like that today. The Rockies are very good vs lefties at home, with a .290 average and .823 OPS, ranking first in the league.

Philidephia Phillies vs Randy Vasquez

As a Padres fan myself I have witnessed Vasquez's terrible pitching all season, and seen him get bailed out by double play after double play. He is allowing an insane .319 opponent average; he has the 4th highest SIERA on the slate, and his K rate is 15%. The Phillies are a scary offense and they are projected for 5.5 runs, second today behind the Dodgers. The Phillies have dominated the Padres in recent history, and I don't see that changing today.