MLB DFS Analysis Friday, June 28th

My favorite MLB DFS plays for today with statistical reasoning.

We have a large, 13 game slate today kicking off at 7:05 ET, and it's finally back to being the same on Draftkings and Fanduel. There are a couple spots where weather is worth monitoring but the only one with real postponement concerns in Rockies at White Sox. In this article I will cover the best Pitchers, Batters, and Stacks for both Draftkings and Fanduel. Some of the players we be repeated across both platforms, so I recommend simply reading the platform you are going to be playing on.

Draftkings

Pitchers

Bailey Ober - 8.8k (MIN @ SEA)

I remember having Ober as one of my plays about a month ago with this same matchup. He ended that game with 7 strikeouts and two earned runs across five innings. The Mariners strike out at the second highest rate vs right handed pitching, and they rank 25th in OPS vs righties. This was surprising to me, but Ober has the second highest K rate on the slate after Nick Pivetta. Ober is projected to go 6 inning with 6.5 strikeouts, and if he does that he will be in some winning lineups.

Drewe Thorpe - 7.3k (CWS vs COL)

The Rockies are absolutely awful on the road, in June they are batting .213 with a .567 OPS vs right handed pitching on the road. Thorpe was a stud in double a and was called up directly to the majors for Chicago. In his three starts, he has had two very good starts and been blown up once by the Diamondbacks. He is projected for 5 strikeouts and while there aren't odds on his innings pitched yet, I think he will be able to go 6 innings. His fantasy score line on Sleeper is 24.5, just one point behind Ronel Blanco at 25.5, and Blanco is the second highest priced pitcher. Thorpe looks like a great value here, I just worry about his strikeout upside.

Dakota Hudson - 5.3k (COL @ CWS)

Sticking with the same game here, Hudson looks like a great value in this spot. On the road his ERA is 3.07 and his opponent average is .197. In 7 games on the road this season Hudson averages 11.71 Draftkings points, which if he replicates would give him second highest value multiplier after Slade Cecconi, who is also a good play. Chicago ranks 28th in OPS vs righties, and 5th in K rate. However, Hudson has an abysmal K rate of 11.2% on the road, so his fantasy points will come from staying in the game for 5+ innings and limiting runs.

Batters

Steven Kwan vs Alek Marsh (CLE @ KC) - 5.6k

Kwan is batting a ridiculous .373 on the season with a .979 OPS. He leads off for Cleveland and they are projected for 5 runs today which means a potential 5th at bat. Kwan has faced Alek Marsh four times in his career and has a single, double, and triple. Even though Kwan is a contact hitter, he still has a.220 ISO vs righties this season, which is very good.

Riley Greene vs Zach Plesac (DET @ LAA) - 4.9k

I have the Tigers in my stacks section below, due to how bad of a pitcher Zach Plesac is. If Detroit does get to him like they should, Greene will be a big part of the Detroit offense. Over the last 30 days Greene is batting .324 with a 1.033 OPS. He has faced Plesac 11 times and has a .795 OPS vs him. But these at bats came last season and in his rookie season, and he has done nothing but improve since then. Greene is +285 for a home run on DraftKings, which is 26%.

Randal Grichuk vs JP Sears (ARI vs OAK) - 3.1k

Grichuk has been in and out of the lineup but he starts every game vs a left handed pitcher. He has a .312 average and .822 OPS vs lefties this season, and today he faces a bad lefty with a 5.00 SIERA. Grichuk is a career 2 for 6 vs Sears with both hits being home runs. Grichuk is projected to be batting 5th in the lineup and at this price that is a steal.

Stacks

Boston Red Sox vs Randy Vazquez

Randy Vazquez has a 5.1 ERA and his FIP is even higher at 5.47. Vasquez allows a .342 opponent average and seems to always have traffic on the bases. Some games he gets bailed out with double plays and fly balls and some games he doesn't. Boston is the ninth ranked offense in OPS vs righties, an in June their OPS vs righties is .811. Vazquez could very well get blown up today so I'll be rostering a lot of Red Sox.

Detroit Tigers vs Zach Plesac

Detroit allowed triple a pitcher Davis Daniel to go eight innings with eight strikeouts. That deffenitly limits my confidence in going back to a Detroit stack, but Zach Plesac is such a bad pitcher I can't ignore them. Going back to last season, in Plesac's last eight starts he has a 5.44 SIERA and 7.92 ERA, and an opponent average of .348. Detroit is projected for 4.7 runs today, and should be able to get to Plesac.

Fanduel

Pitchers

Bailey Ober - 9.8k (MIN @ SEA)

I remember having Ober as one of my plays about a month ago with this same matchup. He ended that game with 7 strikeouts and two earned runs across five innings. The Mariners strike out at the second highest rate vs right handed pitching, and they rank 25th in OPS vs righties. This was surprising to me, but Ober has the second highest K rate on the slate after Nick Pivetta. Ober is projected to go 6 inning with 6.5 strikeouts, and if he does that he will be in some winning lineups.

Charlie Morton - 8.8k (ATL vs PIT)

Morton has been a league average pitcher this season, he has a 101 xFIP-, and a 4.11 SIERA. But his K rate is above average at 24.1% an he gets a great matchup today. Pittsburgh ranks third in K rate at 25.5%, and 18th in OPS vs right handed pitching. Morton doesn't typically go 6 full innings, but if he does he will likely pick up the win because Atlanta is -190 favorites. Morton is projected for 6 strikeouts, it he comes in at a great price on Fanduel.

Drewe Thorpe - 7.6k (CWS vs COL)

The Rockies are absolutely awful on the road, in June they are batting .213 with a .567 OPS vs right handed pitching on the road. Thorpe was a stud in double a and was called up directly to the majors for Chicago. In his three starts, he has had two very good starts and been blown up once by the Diamondbacks. He is projected for 5 strikeouts and while there aren't odds on his innings pitched yet, I think he will be able to go 6 innings. His fantasy score line on Sleeper is 24.5, just one point behind Ronel Blanco at 25.5, and Blanco is the third highest priced pitcher. Thorpe looks like a great value here, I just worry about his strikeout upside.

Batters

Steven Kwan vs Alek Marsh (CLE @ KC) - 3.9k

Kwan is batting a ridiculous .373 on the season with a .979 OPS. He leads off for Cleveland and they are projected for 5 runs today which means a potential 5th at bat. Kwan has faced Alek Marsh four times in his career and has a single, double, and triple. Even though Kwan is a contact hitter, he still has a.220 ISO vs righties this season, which is very good.

Riley Greene vs Zach Plesac (DET @ LAA) - 3.5k

I have the Tigers in my stacks section below, due to how bad of a pitcher Zach Plesac is. If Detroit does get to him like they should, Greene will be a big part of the Detroit offense. Over the last 30 days Greene is batting .324 with a 1.033 OPS. He has faced Plesac 11 times and has a .795 OPS vs him. But these at bats came last season and in his rookie season, and he has done nothing but improve since then. Greene is +285 for a home run on DraftKings, which is 26%.

Randal Grichuk vs JP Sears (ARI vs OAK) - 2.4k

Grichuk has been in and out of the lineup but he starts every game vs a left handed pitcher. He has a .312 average and .822 OPS vs lefties this season, and today he faces a bad lefty with a 5.00 SIERA. Grichuk is a career 2 for 6 vs Sears with both hits being home runs. Grichuk is projected to be batting 5th in the lineup and at this price that is a steal.

Stacks

Boston Red Sox vs Randy Vazquez

Randy Vazquez has a 5.1 ERA and his FIP is even higher at 5.47. Vasquez allows a .342 opponent average and seems to always have traffic on the bases. Some games he gets bailed out with double plays and fly balls and some games he doesn't. Boston is the ninth ranked offense in OPS vs righties, an in June their OPS vs righties is .811. Vazquez could very well get blown up today so I'll be rostering a lot of Red Sox.

Detroit Tigers vs Zach Plesac

Detroit allowed triple a pitcher Davis Daniel to go eight innings with eight strikeouts. That deffenitly limits my confidence in going back to a Detroit stack, but Zach Plesac is such a bad pitcher I can't ignore them. Going back to last season, in Plesac's last eight starts he has a 5.44 SIERA and 7.92 ERA, and an opponent average of .348. Detroit is projected for 4.7 runs today, and should be able to get to Plesac.