MLB DFS Analysis Friday, June 21st

My favorite MLB DFS plays for today with statistical reasoning.

We have a ten game slate today kicking off at 7:05 E.T. Weather wise, theres a chance at a delay in New York, but there are no potential postponements to worry about. Pitching is a bit odd today where all the most expensive pitchers have some big red flags. In this article I will cover the best Pitchers, Batters, and Stacks for both Draftkings and Fanduel. Some of the players we be repeated across both platforms, so I recommend simply reading the platform you are going to be playing on.

Draftkings

Pitchers

George Kriby - 9.4k (SEA @ MIA)

Kirby is the safest play on the slate, he has been great this season with a 2.97 FIP, 2.6% walk rate, and 1.01 WHIP. The Marlins rank 28th in OPS vs righties, and in the last 30 days they have an OPS of .641 vs right handed pitching. The Marlins have the lowest run total on the day at 3.4, and Seattle is -170 favorites. Kirby doesn't have too much strikeout upside with only a 22.9% combined K rate, but sports books still have his line at 6.5, yet it is heavily favored on the under. A six inning, six strikeout, win would put Kirby in a lot of winning lineups.

Kutter Crawford - 8.2k (BOS @ CIN)

It's rare that we see a pitcher with a 25.45% combined K rate go so unowned. Crawford is coming off games with 8 and 9 strikeouts vs two of the best offenses in the league in the Yankees and Phillies. The Reds rank 26th in OPS vs righties this season, and 3rd in K rate. Crawford pitches very efficiently, going 6 innings in under 90 pitches very frequently. The reason people are off him today is the heat, Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter friendly parks, and with the heat balls may fly. Some people think the heat will limit how many innings Crawford pitches, but Matt Waldron went for seven innings in 91 degree weather on Wednesday, Crawford should be good for six innings. The Reds lineup doesn't scare me at all, and if Crawford has 8 strikeouts again, you'll be at the top of the leaderboard with only 6% of the field.

DJ Hernz - 6.3k (WSH @ COL)

Of course pitching on Colorado always means increased risk, but at 6.3k I'll take the chance. The Rockies are a scary offense at home vs lefties, they have a .793 OPS and have a K rate of only 22.8%. I know this all sounds terrible for Hernz, but over his first three games in the major league, he has a 35% K rate and a 2.17 FIP. This isn't new to him either, in triple a he had a 10.5 K/9, and in double a it was all the way at 12.2. Hernz is definitely a scary play, but because of his upside I will be rostering him quite a bit.

Batters

Tyler O'Neill vs Andrew Abbot (BOS @ CIN) - 5k

Tyler O'Neill has a .345 average and 1.242 OPS against left handed pitchers, and today he faces lefty Andrew Abbot with a 4.65 SIERA. O'Neill has an ISO of .419 and his odds to hit a home run today are +225, which is 30.8%. O'Neill is a much better value on Fanduel, but even at 5k, he looks like a great play.

Tyler Soderstrom vs Chris Paddack (OAK vs MIN) - 2.5k

Soderstrom in an incredible value at 2.5k, he has a respectable .775 OPS vs righties this season, and Chris Paddack allows a .802 OPS to left handed batters. Paddack's last start came against the A's where he allowed 5 urns in 2.1 innings. In those 2.1 innings, Soderstrom went 2 for 2 with a home run. Hopefully Soderstrom can run it back today at only 2.5k.

Stacks

Baltimore Orioles vs Jake Bloss

The Orioles offense is blazing right now. Over the last 30 days they are batting .286 with a .873 OPS vs righties. In this span they have put up 7 runs on Luis Gil and 8 runs on Zach Wheeler, two elite pitchers this season. Today, they face Jake Bloss who skipped triple a and is coming straight form double a. He was great in double a with a 1.61 ERA and .72 WHIP, but he only had a 7 K/9. I feel bad for the rookie for having to make his debut against the Orioles, but I'll be playing a lot of them today.

Minnesota Twins vs Joey Estes

The Twins offense has been scary since Royce Lewis returned they are batting .274 with a .807 OPS vs right handed pitching. Joey Estes had his last start against the Twins last week, and he allowed 6 runs and two home runs in 2.2 innings. While he probably won't do that bad again, I do expect the Twins to put up some runs again. Estes is also allowing a 1.009 OPS to left handed batters, so Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler, Carlos Santana, and Willi Castro get a bump.

Fanduel

Pitchers

George Kriby - 10k (SEA @ MIA)

Kirby is the safest play on the slate, he has been great this season with a 2.97 FIP, 2.6% walk rate, and 1.01 WHIP. The Marlins rank 28th in OPS vs righties, and in the last 30 days they have an OPS of .641 vs right handed pitching. The Marlins have the lowest run total on the day at 3.4, and Seattle is -170 favorites. Kirby doesn't have too much strikeout upside with only a 22.9% combined K rate, but sports books still have his line at 6.5, yet it is heavily favored on the under. A six inning, six strikeout, win would put Kirby in a lot of winning lineups.

Kutter Crawford - 8.9k (BOS @ CIN)

It's rare that we see a pitcher with a 25.45% combined K rate go so unowned. Crawford is coming off games with 8 and 9 strikeouts vs two of the best offenses in the league in the Yankees and Phillies. The Reds rank 26th in OPS vs righties this season, and 3rd in K rate. Crawford pitches very efficiently, going 6 innings in under 90 pitches very frequently. The reason people are off him today is the heat, Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter friendly parks, and with the heat balls may fly. Some people think the heat will limit how many innings Crawford pitches, but Matt Waldron went for seven innings in 91 degree weather on Wednesday, Crawford should be good for six innings. The Reds lineup doesn't scare me at all, and if Crawford has 8 strikeouts again, you'll be at the top of the leaderboard with only 6% of the field.

Batters

Jordan Westberg vs Jake Bloss (BAL @ HOU) - 3.4k

Westberg has been great vs righties, after Gunnar Henderson he leads the team in OPS at .927. You can see below I have the Orioles as one of my favorite stacks today against rookie Jake Bloss, and Westberg can provide a lot of the offense for a big discount compared to Gunnar Henderson at 4.3k.

Tyler O'Neill vs Andrew Abbot (BOS @ CIN) - 3k

Tyler O'Neill has a .345 average and 1.242 OPS against left handed pitchers, and today he faces lefty Andrew Abbot with a 4.65 SIERA. O'Neill has an ISO of .419 and his odds to hit a home run today are +225, which is 30.8%. 3k for these odds are insane and he will be in a majority of my lineups.

Stacks

Baltimore Orioles vs Jake Bloss

The Orioles offense is blazing right now. Over the last 30 days they are batting .286 with a .873 OPS vs righties. In this span they have put up 7 runs on Luis Gil and 8 runs on Zach Wheeler, two elite pitchers this season. Today, they face Jake Bloss who skipped triple a and is coming straight form double a. He was great in double a with a 1.61 ERA and .72 WHIP, but he only had a 7 K/9. I feel bad for the rookie for having to make his debut against the Orioles, but I'll be playing a lot of them today.

Minnesota Twins vs Joey Estes

The Twins offense has been scary since Royce Lewis returned they are batting .274 with a .807 OPS vs right handed pitching. Joey Estes had his last start against the Twins last week, and he allowed 6 runs and two home runs in 2.2 innings. While he probably won't do that bad again, I do expect the Twins to put up some runs again. Estes is also allowing a 1.009 OPS to left handed batters, so Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler, Carlos Santana, and Willi Castro get a bump.