MLB DFS Analysis Friday, July 5th

My favorite MLB DFS plays for today with statistical reasoning.

I hope you all had a nice 4th of July, we are back today with a big 12 game slate starting at 7:05 ET. There are a lot of good pitching options today and ownership looks like it's going to be very spread out, so just pick your favorite plays. It's going to rain in a few spots today but the Yankees vs Red Sox game is the only one with a little bit of postponement concern. In this article I will cover the best Pitchers, Batters, and Stacks for both Draftkings and Fanduel. Some of the players we be repeated across both platforms, so I recommend simply reading the platform you are going to be playing on.

Draftkings

Pitchers

Max Fried - 9.1k (ATL vs PHI)

Fried hasn't been striking out a lot of batters, but he is getting to a lot of fantasy points in other ways. He has a quality start in 7 of the last 9 games, and a win in 5 of those. At home his season he has an impressive 3.23 xFIP and forcing 60.9% ground balls. The Phillies lineup will likely scare many people off but don't forget Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are both out of the lineup with injuries. I know it's a small sample size, but in the one week without these two, the Phillies are batting .178 with a .593 OPS vs left handed pitchers. They are projected for only 3.6 runs so Fried looks to be in a great spot.

Cole Ragans - 8.2k (KCR @ COL)

Ragans is at a heavy discount for his ability today vs the Rockies. The game is in Colorado so the Rockies total is still set to 4.5 despite facing Ragans. Ragans has been an elite pitcher this season with a 29.8% rate and 3.25 SIERA. The Rockies hit pretty well at home but they still strike out a lot, since June 1st, they have been striking out at a 26.2% clip vs lefties at home. Ragans has great strikeout upside and hopefully he can limit the fly balls in Coors.

Drew Thorpe - 7k (CWS @ MIA)

Thorpe has put together three good starts and one awful one in his rookie season. He has done a very good job of limiting hits, allowing only a .173 opponent average, but he allows a lot of walks, 13.8%, and only strikes out batters at a 14.9% rate. Miami has been a terrible offense, since June they have a .593 OPS and 25.9% K rate. 41.9% of baserunners Thorpe has allowed have turned into runs, and the number is sure to go down. Thorpe will need to improve his command and limit the walks, but I like his chances for six innings at only 7k.

Batters

Corbin Carroll vs Randy Vazquez (ARI @ SDP) - 4.8k

I've you've been watching baseball this season, you know how bad Corbin Carrol has been, but if you have been reading my articles, you know how bad Randy Vazquez is also. Vazquez has a .338 opponent average, a 1.66 WHIP, and a 4.85 SIERA. Carroll has been getting better since his terrible start to the season but he is still nowhere near where he should be. Carroll is batting .263 with a .712 OPS vs right handed pitchers since June. Carroll is also 3 for 4 vs Vazquez with two singles and a double. Carroll should be leading off and while his power hasn't been there this season, he can still have a big game with stolen bases and runs.

Brooks Lee vs Shawn Dubin (MIN vs HOU) - 2k

The 8th overall pick from 2022 and Twins top prospect Brooks Lee has made it to the MLB. In his first game he went 2 for 4 with two singles and an RBI, then he followed that up by going 1 for 2 with another single and a walk yesterday. Lee had a .350 average and .997 OPS in triple a, and he will never be this cheap again.

Stacks

Baltimore Orioles vs Hogan Harris

Hogan Harris is a pitcher I have continued to try and pick on but have been fairly unsuccessful. He was a bad pitcher in triple a and has been a bad pitcher in the MLB, but his ERA has managed to stay fairly low. He was finally gotten to in his last start for 10 hits and 3 runs in just 3.1 innings, and I the Orioles will be the best offense Harris has faced so far. The Orioles haven't been quite as good against lefties recently, but regardless, they are still projected for the second most runs on the slate and I love them in this spot.

San Diego Padres vs Slade Cecconi

The Padres have been on a roll since Tatis got injured, they now have an 8 and 3 record and average 5.64 runs per game over that span. The Padres are now five games above .500 which is the best they have been all season, and now they return home after a time away. While I don't like to make plays based on feelings, I would be very surprised if the Padres offense didn't continue their hot streak now facing a bad pitcher in front of their fans. Slade Cecconi has not been a good pitcher this season with a 5.81 ERA and a 2-6 record, and the Padres have been such a great offense all season.

Fanduel

Pitchers

Max Fried - 9.7k (ATL vs PHI)

Fried hasn't been striking out a lot of batters, but he is getting to a lot of fantasy points in other ways. He has a quality start in 7 of the last 9 games, and a win in 5 of those. At home his season he has an impressive 3.23 xFIP and forcing 60.9% ground balls. The Phillies lineup will likely scare many people off but don't forget Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are both out of the lineup with injuries. I know it's a small sample size, but in the one week without these two, the Phillies are batting .178 with a .593 OPS vs left handed pitchers. They are projected for only 3.6 runs so Fried looks to be in a great spot.

Drew Thorpe - 7.7k (CWS @ MIA)

Thorpe has put together three good starts and one awful one in his rookie season. He has done a very good job of limiting hits, allowing only a .173 opponent average, but he allows a lot of walks, 13.8%, and only strikes out batters at a 14.9% rate. Miami has been a terrible offense, since June they have a .593 OPS and 25.9% K rate. 41.9% of baserunners Thorpe has allowed have turned into runs, and the number is sure to go down. Thorpe will need to improve his command and limit the walks, but I like his chances for six innings at only 7.7k.

Batters

Corbin Carroll vs Randy Vazquez (ARI @ SDP) - 3.1k

I've you've been watching baseball this season, you know how bad Corbin Carrol has been, but if you have been reading my articles, you know how bad Randy Vazquez is also. Vazquez has a .338 opponent average, a 1.66 WHIP, and a 4.85 SIERA. Carroll has been getting better since his terrible start to the season but he is still nowhere near where he should be. Carroll is batting .263 with a .712 OPS vs right handed pitchers since June. Carroll is also 3 for 4 vs Vazquez with two singles and a double. Carroll should be leading off and while his power hasn't been there this season, he can still have a big game with stolen bases and runs.

Ausin Hays vs Hogan Harris (BAL @ OAK) - 2.6k

The Orioles are one of my favorite stacks today and Hays has been red hot vs lefties. Since May, Hays is batting .419 with a 1.116 OPS. He only played 19 games vs lefties in that span so the sample size is small, but regardless, getting those stats in a good offense vs a bad pitcher is amazing at 2.5k.

Stacks

Baltimore Orioles vs Hogan Harris

Hogan Harris is a pitcher I have continued to try and pick on but have been fairly unsuccessful. He was a bad pitcher in triple a and has been a bad pitcher in the MLB, but his ERA has managed to stay fairly low. He was finally gotten to in his last start for 10 hits and 3 runs in just 3.1 innings, and I the Orioles will be the best offense Harris has faced so far. The Orioles haven't been quite as good against lefties recently, but regardless, they are still projected for the second most runs on the slate and I love them in this spot.

San Diego Padres vs Slade Cecconi

The Padres have been on a roll since Tatis got injured, they now have an 8 and 3 record and average 5.64 runs per game over that span. The Padres are now five games above .500 which is the best they have been all season, and now they return home after a time away. While I don't like to make plays based on feelings, I would be very surprised if the Padres offense didn't continue their hot streak now facing a bad pitcher in front of their fans. Slade Cecconi has not been a good pitcher this season with a 5.81 ERA and a 2-6 record, and the Padres have been such a great offense all season.