Early NFL Best Ball Strategy

Overall strategy guide and my favorite targets at each position.

Fantasy draft season is already underway, and if you are devoted enough to already be drafting, you can take advantage of some massive values. Every year the rookies and fan favorites rise up draft board all the way to the NFL season. Now is the time to get in on your favorite rookies, and to let other drafters take the overvalued players like DJ Moore in the 2nd round and Zay Flowers in the 4th. In this article I will go over my favorite targets at each position and my overall draft strategy.

Strategy

This year, wide receivers are being taken higher than ever before. And while it may seem obvious to stray from the pack get the top names at running back, you will be wishing you hadn't when your wide receiver one is Jaylen Waddle or Malik Nabers. A golden rule used in Best Ball drafts is to aim for five receivers by round nine, leaving you four spots for most likely three running backs and a QB or TE. An exception to this rule could be if you take three receivers in the first three rounds, you could just take one more by round nine. But most of the time, to have most optimal lineups, five receivers through nine rounds rule is the best choice.

When it comes to QBs and TEs, you want 2-3 at each position by the end of Underdog drafts. If you select a top tier QB or TE you only need one more of that position at the end of drafts to fill in for bye weeks and bad performances. But if you wait later in drafts to draft QB or TE, you should bee looking to end the draft with three. I think the top tier QBs end with Joe Burrow, and the top tier TEs end at Evan Engram.

My final piece of advice would be to not forget your flex position. Often times you may have two good running backs and three good receivers, and then start drafting tight ends and quarterbacks or take a chance on a risky player like Christian Watson or Rashee Rice. But it is important to remember that you want another flex position player that you are happy to see in your lineup regularly. This could be a late running back on a bad team like Zamir White or Rhamondre Stevenson, or a less attractive receiver who will still get volume like Diontae Johnson or Courtland Sutton.

Quarterbacks

Jayden Daniels - QB 12 (ADP 104.3) - Washington Commanders

Underdog drafters always love the rushing quarterbacks, which makes me so surprised by this ADP. Last year Anthony Richardson was being drafted around 75th, and while his injury made that a bad selection, in the three games that he played fully, he averaged 23 fantasy points, which would have put him at second on the year. Of course nobody expects that for a full season or he'd go much higher than the QB 6 right now. But Sam Howell, as bad as he was and as bad as the Commanders offense was last season, finished as the QB 12 in total points. Thinking Daniels will be worse than Howell is absurd, and I'm going to draft Daniels as much as possible where he goes right now.

Here is a tweet that highlight just how valuable rushing QBs are in fantasy

Assuming Daniels runs the ball as much as he is expected to, 15 out of 16 results are better than Jayden Daniels' ADP.

Geno Smith - QB 23 (ADP 174.6) - Seattle Seahawks

In his first season as the Seahawks starting quarterback Geno was amazing ending as the QB 8 in fantasy points per game. He was one of the biggest stories of 2022, but sadly was disappointing from a fantasy perspective in 2023. A lot of his stats were down, his passing touchdowns went from 30 to 20, and his passing yards went from 4,282 to 3,624, but keep in mind he played two less games in 2023. The dip was major, sending him down to QB 23 in fantasy points per game. But what gives hope for next season is that he wasn't that much worse of a QB in a real world sense. His QBR barley dropped, going from 62.8 to 59.5, still ranking 14th in the league this season.

The Seahawks were a very pass heavy offense last season, ranking 5th in passing play percentage. But at the same time Geno ranked 32nd out of QBs on average depth of target. Their offense was all about short yardage passes, which does not bode well for fantasy production. But the important news is that Ryan Grubb, who served as the offensive coordinator at the University of Washington for the last two seasons is going to be the Seahawks OC this season. The Huskies offense last year was all about the long ball, and helped Michael Penix Jr. average 324 passing yards per game. I expect Geno return to last seasons fantasy numbers or even surpass them, and with that I am also in on DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and even Noah Fant where they are being drafted.

X axis shows pass rate, Y axis shows depth of target

Running Backs

Gus Edwards - RB 36 (ADP 116.7) - Los Angeles Chargers

Before the NFL draft on April 5th, Gus Edwards' ADP was 118.6. People assumed the Chargers would be drafting a running back replacement for Austin Ekeler, or somebody that would take a lot of touches away from Gus Edwards. Instead they drafted Kimani Vidal in the 6th round. I don't want to discredit Vidal at all, he put up 1,661 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdown last year with Troy. But this production comes at Troy of course, playing much lower competition than the backs in higher rounds. The truth is 6th round running backs just almost never see a fantasy relevant role in the NFL. The 6th round backs from last years draft were Chris Rodriguez, Duece Vaughn, and Zach Evans, none of who played a role last season. Even going back five years the best names from the 6th and 7th round are Khalil Herbert, Boston Scott, Elijah Mitchell, and the outlier of them all, Isaih Pacheco, who was the RB 35 in total fantasy points his rookie year.

Hopefully that convinced you not to be too worried about Vidal, because now, after the draft, where Vidal was the only running back added, Gus Edwards' ADP has not moved. Edwards' ADP means people think the Chargers backfield will be split evenly between Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, and Kimani Vidal. But it seems pretty clear to me that the running back who put up 810 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns last seasons will beat out a post ACL and achilles tear JK Dobins, and a 6th round rookie.

Where this gets even more interesting is when you look at the Chargers offensive game plan for next season. They brought in head coach Jim Harbaugh, who just completed a national championship season with Michigan where they ran the ball 62% of the time. To put that into perspective Baltimore lead the NFL in rush rate last season at 49.9%. Of course Harbaugh won't run the ball that much in the NFL, but the Chargers will be near the top of the league in rush rate for sure. I used this graph to show why Geno Smith is a good pick for this season with the University of Washington offensive coordinator, but it also shows just how much volume Gus Edwards could see next season in a Jim Harbaugh offense.

X axis shows pass rate, Y axis shows depth of target

Jonathan Brooks - RB 24 (ADP 89.1) - Carolina Panthers

Brooks' ADP has risen six spots since the post NFL draft Underdog contests opened, and as we continue to see more positive reports, he will continue to rise even more. Brooks was the top Runback in this years NFL draft, and was taken by the Panthers with the 46th overall pick. In previous years running backs taken around there include Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Javonte Williams, D'andre Swift, and Jonathan Taylor. And while he is definitely not at the same caliber as a lot of those guys, it is clear how much the Panthers Organization likes him. Dave Canales is the new head coach of the Panthers, after being the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay last season where Rachaad White was the RB 7. The new Panthers staff has no connection to Miles Sanders or Chuba Hubbard, and in every interview about Jonathan Brooks, it is clear he will be touching the ball a lot this season.

A lot of the reason people are hesitant about Brooks, is because he is coming off a ALC tear he suffered in November. But, using the 9 month recovery timeline he should be back in mid August, only missing a couple weeks of training camp. But in recent interview, Brooks says he is on track to be ready for the beginning of training camp. Jonathan Brooks checks so many boxes as a prospect and projects to be a three down back. He has the size to be an every down player and the receiver capability to stay out on third downs.

Some people are looking at the situation as a 1a/1b backfield between Jonathan Brooks and Chuba Hubbard, but it seems clear to me Brooks will be the clear starter from week1 if his knee is ready. This reminds me a lot of the Cam Akers and Kyren Williams situation from last year; people though Akers would have a big part of the offense because of how well he did to end the previous season. But it was clear Kyren was Sean McVays guy, and Akers was phased out of the offense so quickly. I am not worried about Chuba Hubbard, and I am excited to see how much Dave Canales will use his new star running back.

Wide Receivers

Marquis "Hollywood" Brown - WR 35 (ADP 60.8) - Kansas City Chiefs

"Nobody is more obviously ready to go from unfortunate to blessed on their deep ball catch rate than Hollywood" - Underdog Network

Every year since Tyreek Hill left the Chiefs, Underdog drafters have been slamming Chiefs receivers up rankings hoping they take up some level of his fantasy production. Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in 2022, then Sky Moore, Kadarius Toney and Rashee Rice in 2023. Nearly all of them turned out to be disappointments with the exception of Rashee Rice, who was being drafted near the ends of drafts. But now the Chiefs get in my opinion their best receiver since Tyreek Hill in Hollywood Brown. Brown is extremely fast, running a 4.27 40 yard dash coming out of college, and in Kansas City he will be used on the outside and as a downfield threat.

Last year between Josh Dobbs, Clayton Tune, four weeks of Kyler Murray, and a heel injury that cost him four games, Brown has bad season. The hope is that a lot of that can be credited to bad QB play, and this is fairly true. On deep targets, Brown's specialty, he only caught only 8 of 31, which ranks 83rd out of 88 receivers who saw that volume. With Patrick Mahomes the deep targets should be much more accurate. If you compare Marquez Valdes-Scantling from his first year with Mahomes to what Hollywood Brown saw last year, it makes me optimistic. According to playerprofiler, MVS in 2022 and Brown in 2023 saw the same amount of deep targets, MVS' catchable target rate was 75% and Brown's was 56%. With better passes Brown could become a solid WR3 with some big games.

Also, Rashee Rice is likely going to be out of the equation for at least half of the season after his assault case and reckless driving hit and run, but even when he comes back he will continue to play in the slot. Even if Brown is just alright, Juju Smith-Schuster was the WR 29 in total fantasy points during his disappointing season with the Chiefs, with Brown being drafted as the WR 35, this selection seems so easy for me.

"Coach is really pushing us to push it down the field" Patrick Mahomes quote from Chiefs OTA

Courtland Sutton - WR 50 (ADP 100.7) - Denver Broncos

It seems like people still have a bad tase in their mouth from drafting Sutton as the wide receiver 17 in 2022. After he finished as the WR 43 in the Broncos disappointing 2022, he fell to the WR 40 in drafts. Then, last season, in his first year with Sean Payton, he finished as the WR 35. Today he is being drafted as the WR 50, make that make sense.

It's hard to say if Sutton is in a better or worse situation this season. From a QB perspective it is likely a downgrade, even though Russel Wilson was considered a disappointment with the Broncos, he was still pretty good from a non-fantasy football world with a +2% completion percentage over expected, and 50.7 QBR ranking him 21st. Bo Nix could definitely put up a comparable season, but I wouldn't look at the departure of Russ as a necessarily good thing for Sutton. What is a good thing however, is the departure of Jerry Juedy. Sutton is the clear alpha receiver in Denver, his target competition is Marvin Mims Jr., Josh Reynolds, and 5th round rookie Troy Franklin. Sutton will get all the volume he needs to easily pay off his WR 50 ADP.

One reason Sutton is being drafted so late may be due to the likely touchdown regression, Sutton caught 10 touchdowns last season despite usage models projecting him for 5.7. But Sutton is 6'4" 216 lbs, he is going to be better in the red zone than the average receiver which the model is calculating for. He was still the 48th receiver in usage last season, so if his touchdowns plummet he will still pay off his ADP. Sutton is a great option as your fourth receiver and is still somehow being taken behind players like Curtis Samuel and Jameson Williams.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry - TE 19 (ADP 162.6) - New England Patriots

The Patriots had the 5th worst passing offense in the league last season, rotating between quarterbacks Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe. The two Patriots QBs combined for a miserable 16 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions. The Patriots revamped their organization in the offseason, making Jerod Mayo their new head coach following Bill Belichick's retirement, and bringing in their franchise QB in Drake Maye.

Another change that is a major improvement for Hunter Henry, is the addition of offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, who was the OC of the Browns last season. It seems like the offensive plan of the Patriots this season is to essentially replicate the Browns offense of previous seasons, which was confirmed by Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson. The reason why this matters for Hunter Henry, is not only because the Patriots will hopefully score more touchdowns, but because the Browns offense and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt love to feature their tight ends. In Van Pelt's four seasons with Cleveland, the Browns were 5th, 6th, 6th, and 6th in targets to tight ends.

Last season Hunter Henry finished as the tight end 15 in fantasy points per game despite being the 23 tight end in targets per game at only 4.4. David Njoku had 7.7 targets per game with the Browns last season, and while I don't think Henry will get nearly that many targets, if he gets close to 6 targets per game, that is a massive jump for his production. Henry has almost no target competition this season, with Austin Hooper backing him up, who is on the team simply because he know the offense from his time with the Browns. Henry seems almost a sure thing to pay off his ADP of TE 19, and it is within the range of outcomes for him to end as a tight end one this season.

Chart displaying tight end targets per team last season (Patriots 121, Browns 166)

Noah Fant - TE 24 (ADP 187.9) - Seattle Seahawks

As I mentioned in my breakdown of Geno Smith, the Seahawks offense is going to be fun to watch this year. With the addition of Offensive Coordinator Ryan Grubb from the University of Washington, the Seahawks will be taking a lot more downfield shots and the overall pass offense should see great improvements.

It is easy to forget that Noah Fant was a first round pick, he went 20th overall to the Broncos, and had three seasons there with around 600 yards. He was then shipped to the Seahawks as a key piece of the Russel Wilson trade. In his first two seasons with the Seahawks Fant has been disappointing from a fantasy perspective, the Seahawks rotated through three tight ends and Fant didn't see the field very often, but when he did he looked good. I am not a film expert, I am much more of a statistics and numbers guy, but the guys over at the Underdog Fantasy Network have a great video breaking down why Fant is a great breakout candidate for this year.

Situationally, this is the year for Fant, his competition last season was Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. Parkinson was on the field for 47% of offensive snaps and received a 22.5 million dollar, three year contract with the Rams. Will Dissly, who got 36% of the snaps last season, is headed to the Chargers. The Seahawks made it clear Fant would be the guy for now, signing him to a two year contract worth 21 million dollars, making him the 10th highest paid tight end.

This reminds me a lot of the breakout of David Njoku; following the departure of Austin Hooper, Njoku's snap share went from 60% to 70%, and his production went from 29.6 yards per game to 44.9. Fant will lead the TE room in Seattle this year, only competing with fourth round rookie blocking tight end AJ Barner and 30 year old Pharoah Brown. Fant was on the field for 54.6% of the snaps last season and averaged just 24.4 yards per game, but he should jump to near 75% of the snaps and he is the only TE on the roster who will be consistently running routs. The 26 year old is in a great spot to breakout and he is a great target as a late round tight end.

Click the image to watch the video by The Underdog Network on Youtube